2022·Week 2
2 for 2 · B on paper, B in the books
On paper Alex, in the books Alex, in the long run Curtis, because Hall became Chase.
The deal
weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
BH
Breece HallRB24 weeks · 11 starts · 176.6 started, flipped 2023 wk10 to Caleb for Ja'Marr Chase, credit 80.0176.611 starts
Breece HallRB24 weeks · 11 starts · 176.6 started, flipped 2023 wk10 to Caleb for Ja'Marr Chase, credit 80.0176.611 starts
Side total314.7314.7 direct · 394.8 with conversion
AS
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR3 weeks · 2 starts · 52.7 started, flipped wk5 to Austin for Joe Mixon, Nyheim Miller-Hines, Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase, credit 63.652.72 starts
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR3 weeks · 2 starts · 52.7 started, flipped wk5 to Austin for Joe Mixon, Nyheim Miller-Hines, Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase, credit 63.652.72 starts
$3 FAAB
Side total85.185.1 direct · 148.7 with conversion
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
Two grades and the long run
on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2022 · the long run across tenures
On paperD/B144.3 to Alex, 9.02 a weekCurtis's sideDeebo Samuel 228.0, Breece Hall 129.5357.5Alex's sideAmon-Ra St. Brown 270.3, Antonio Gibson 231.5501.8Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksD/B+117.5 to Alex, 7.34 a weekCurtis's sideDeebo Samuel 150.4, Breece Hall 105.0255.4Alex's sideAmon-Ra St. Brown 236.3, Antonio Gibson 136.6372.9What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runA/F+309.6 to Curtisdirectwhat Curtis started himself314.7with conversionthe flips credited back394.8againstwhat the other side started85.1Alex's side-166.0that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way+145.0Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
Curtis's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Deebo Samuel18.770.951.000.951.000.9015.2015228.0Breece Hall10.101.001.000.951.000.908.6415129.5Side total357.5
Alex's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Antonio Gibson15.151.081.001.051.000.9015.4315231.5Amon-Ra St. Brown15.091.051.201.051.000.9018.0215270.3Side total501.8
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.
The season after
2022, before and after week 2 · the trade week marked · regular season
Curtisfinished 7thBefore1-0114.0 a gameAfter5-8119.6 a game123456789101112131415ConsConsAlexfinished 4thBefore0-1109.6 a gameAfter8-5121.2 a game1234567891011121314QFSF3rdwinlosstrade weekbye or out
The chain
the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
This deal · 2022 wk2Curtis and Alex, 2 for 2314.7 direct to Curtis
The context
Trade in league history68 of 123
Curtis's trades27 his side A, +309.6
Alex's trades45 his side F, -166.0
Blockbusternot in the list
Fleecenot in the list
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.