2023·Week 10
1 for 2 · B on paper, A in the books
On paper Caleb, in the books Caleb, in the long run Caleb, because Hall became Daniels and Evans.
The deal
weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
Side total94.694.6 direct
BH
Breece HallRB18 weeks · 18 starts · 330.8 started, flipped 2024 wk12 to Alex for Mike Evans, Christian McCaffrey and Jayden Daniels, credit 8.1330.818 starts
Breece HallRB18 weeks · 18 starts · 330.8 started, flipped 2024 wk12 to Alex for Mike Evans, Christian McCaffrey and Jayden Daniels, credit 8.1330.818 starts
Side total391.0391.0 direct · 399.1 with conversion
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
Two grades and the long run
on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2023 · the long run across tenures
On paperD/B90.5 to Caleb, 11.32 a weekCurtis's sideJa'Marr Chase 161.8161.8Caleb's sideBreece Hall 150.8, Jaylen Waddle 101.5252.3Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksF/A+139.0 to Caleb, 17.37 a weekCurtis's sideJa'Marr Chase 101.7101.7Caleb's sideBreece Hall 151.3, Jaylen Waddle 89.4240.7What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runF/A+304.4 to Calebdirectwhat Caleb started himself391.0with conversionthe flips credited back399.1againstwhat the other side started94.6Curtis's side-296.4that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way+114.1Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
Curtis's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Ja'Marr Chase19.831.001.201.000.851.0020.238161.8Side total161.8
Caleb's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Jaylen Waddle14.561.051.001.051.000.9014.507101.5Breece Hall14.661.131.200.951.001.0018.858150.8Side total252.3
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.
The season after
2023, before and after week 10 · the trade week marked · regular season
Curtisfinished 6thBefore5-4119.0 a gameAfter3-2117.0 a game1234567891011121314QF5th17Calebfinished 7thBefore4-5110.0 a gameAfter3-2112.0 a game123456789101112131415ConsConswinlosstrade weekbye or out
The chain
the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
This deal · 2023 wk10Curtis and Caleb, 1 for 2391.0 direct to Caleb
nothing went further
The context
Trade in league history97 of 123
Curtis's trades27 his side F, -296.4
Caleb's trades24 his best
Blockbusternot in the list
Fleecenot in the list
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.