2024·Week 12
3 for 4 · A on paper, A in the books
On paper Caleb, in the books Caleb, in the long run Caleb, and Daniels started 4 weeks for him.
The deal
weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
Side total268.4268.4 direct
Side total166.7166.7 direct
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
Two grades and the long run
on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2024 · the long run across tenures
On paperA/F104.9 to Caleb, 17.48 a weekCaleb's sideChristian McCaffrey 165.4, Jayden Daniels 135.3, Mike Evans 72.0372.8Alex's sideJoe Burrow 134.8, Breece Hall 92.3, Amari Cooper 40.8, Isiah Pacheco 0.0267.9Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksA/F+74.1 to Caleb, 12.34 a weekCaleb's sideJayden Daniels 176.9, Mike Evans 129.0, Christian McCaffrey 16.5322.4Alex's sideJoe Burrow 148.6, Breece Hall 38.4, Amari Cooper 36.3, Isiah Pacheco 25.0248.3What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runB/D+101.7 to Calebdirectwhat Caleb started himself268.4with conversionthe flips credited back268.4againstwhat the other side started166.7Alex's side-101.7that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way+101.7Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
Caleb's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Mike Evans14.951.001.001.050.850.9012.01672.0Christian McCaffrey21.881.001.201.051.001.0027.576165.4Jayden Daniels20.071.071.201.051.001.0027.065135.3Side total372.8
Alex's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Amari Cooper11.750.861.001.050.850.908.15540.8Joe Burrow23.541.091.001.051.001.0026.975134.8Breece Hall16.781.001.001.001.001.1018.46592.3Isiah Pacheco14.561.001.001.001.000.9013.1000.0Side total267.9
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.
The season after
2024, before and after week 12 · the trade week marked · regular season
CalebBefore7-4144.3 a gameAfter2-1118.2 a game1234567891011121314QFSF3rdAlexBefore4-7118.4 a gameAfter3-0132.4 a game123456789101112131415ConsConswinlosstrade weekbye or out
The chain
the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
Nothing was flipped out of this deal.
The context
Trade in league history107 of 123
Caleb's trades24 his side B, +101.7
Alex's trades45 his side D, -101.7
Blockbusternot in the list
Fleecenot in the list
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.