2025·Week 5
2 for 2 · B on paper, B in the books
On paper Caleb, in the books Alex, in the long run Alex, and Pollard started 4 weeks for him.
The deal
weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
Side total26.826.8 direct
Side total57.657.6 direct
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
Two grades and the long run
on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2025 · the long run across tenures
On paperB/D128.0 to Caleb, 9.84 a weekCaleb's sideMarvin Harrison 142.7, Nick Chubb 126.6269.3Alex's sideTony Pollard 141.3, Aaron Jones 0.0141.3Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksD/B+130.9 to Alex, 10.07 a weekCaleb's sideMarvin Harrison 79.0, Nick Chubb 26.5105.5Alex's sideTony Pollard 136.7, Aaron Jones 99.7236.4What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runC/C+30.8 to Alexdirectwhat Alex started himself57.6with conversionthe flips credited back57.6againstwhat the other side started26.8Caleb's side-30.8that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way+30.8Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
Caleb's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Nick Chubb9.741.061.200.951.000.9010.5512126.6Marvin Harrison11.891.001.001.001.001.0011.8912142.7Side total269.3
Alex's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Aaron Jones13.090.921.201.001.000.9013.0500.0Tony Pollard11.481.001.200.951.000.9011.7812141.3Side total141.3
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.
The season after
2025, before and after week 5 · the trade week marked · regular season
Calebfinished 8thBefore2-2120.1 a gameAfter2-8117.2 a game1234567891011121314ConsConsConsAlexfinished 3rdBefore4-0142.8 a gameAfter6-4145.3 a game123456789101112131415SF3rdwinlosstrade weekbye or out
The chain
the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
Nothing was flipped out of this deal.
The context
Trade in league history112 of 123
Caleb's trades24 his side C, -30.8
Alex's trades45 his side C, +30.8
Blockbusternot in the list
Fleecenot in the list
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.