Luck Index
0 to 100 · 50 is neutral · higher is luckier · regular season and the title path, current twelve · career
The meter
twelve managers on one band · Drake and Sean marked small sample2026 · 12 managers · standardized within the season2025 · 13 managers · standardized within the season2024 · 12 managers · standardized within the season2023 · 12 managers · standardized within the season2022 · 12 managers · standardized within the season2021 · 12 managers · standardized within the season2020 · 12 managers · standardized within the season2019 · 10 managers · standardized within the season2018 · 12 managers · standardized within the season2017 · 14 managers · standardized within the season
* small sample, under 30 games, outside the standardization pool.
304050 · neutral6070
42Mikayel
43Max
45Caleb
45Ryan46CurtisC47Connor
48Jeff
49AustinBC51Bryan CAN54Austin N
54GregL56Luke
61David MKK61Kevin Keer
42Mikayel43Max45Caleb45Ryan46CurtisC47Connor48Jeff49AustinBC51Bryan CAN54Austin N54GregL56Luke61David MKK61Kevin Keerunluckiestthe band spans 30 to 70 · 50 is neutralluckiest
top · luckiestbottom · unluckiest
The table
a row opens to the manager's breakdown
RankManagerIndexAll-play luckAll-playAvailabilityAvail.Playoff luckPlayoffsClose gamesCloseCheap / unluckyCheap / unl.Schedule drawSched.
Small samples · under 30 games · not ranked
* small sample, outside the standardization pool. Six components, weighted: all-play luck 30%, wins over all-play expected wins; availability 20%, the share of starter weeks lost to injury, weighted by the player's scoring; playoff luck 15%, title-path wins over the share of each week's scores beaten, per game and shrunk toward zero for a short sample, shown as wins over expected in so many games; close games 15%, decided by 5 points or fewer; cheap wins and unlucky losses 10%, wins scored below the week's median and losses scored above it; schedule draw 10%, the league's average that week minus the points scored against you, per game.
All-play luck+7.9weight 30%
Availability6.5%weight 20%
Playoff luck−1.8 in 4weight 15%
Close games10-4weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky16/6weight 10%
Schedule draw+1.8weight 10%
All-play luck+0.4weight 30%
Availability5.6%weight 20%
Playoff luck−0.1 in 11weight 15%
Close games7-5weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky15/9weight 10%
Schedule draw+0.1weight 10%
All-play luck−0.7weight 30%
Availability4.9%weight 20%
Playoff luck+0.4 in 13weight 15%
Close games10-14weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky16/8weight 10%
Schedule draw−0.6weight 10%
All-play luck+2.4weight 30%
Availability8.5%weight 20%
Playoff luck−0.7 in 5weight 15%
Close games6-8weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky15/10weight 10%
Schedule draw+2.7weight 10%
All-play luck−1.4weight 30%
Availability8.5%weight 20%
Playoff luck+0.1 in 3weight 15%
Close games4-3weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky7/4weight 10%
Schedule draw+1.5weight 10%
All-play luck−1.2weight 30%
Availability7.3%weight 20%
Playoff luck−0.5 in 11weight 15%
Close games6-7weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky11/13weight 10%
Schedule draw+2.4weight 10%
All-play luck−4.3weight 30%
Availability6.7%weight 20%
Playoff luck−0.9 in 6weight 15%
Close games7-5weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky9/9weight 10%
Schedule draw−3.3weight 10%
All-play luck−5.5weight 30%
Availability8.4%weight 20%
Playoff luck−0.3 in 6weight 15%
Close games6-11weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky16/15weight 10%
Schedule draw−0.8weight 10%
All-play luck−1.5weight 30%
Availability8.8%weight 20%
Playoff luck−2.3 in 5weight 15%
Close games5-5weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky10/11weight 10%
Schedule draw−6.2weight 10%
All-play luck−4.8weight 30%
Availability9.3%weight 20%
Playoff luck−1.4 in 4weight 15%
Close games7-9weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky15/12weight 10%
Schedule draw−1.8weight 10%
All-play luck0.0weight 30%
Availability3.1%weight 20%
Playoff luckno playoff game yetweight 15%
Close games0-1weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky0/0weight 10%
Schedule draw−6.1weight 10%
All-play luck−0.7weight 30%
Availability7.8%weight 20%
Playoff luck+0.4 in 2weight 15%
Close games1-1weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky0/1weight 10%
Schedule draw−4.0weight 10%
2026 so far · under 8 games · not ranked
RankManagerIndexAll-play luckAll-playAvailabilityAvail.Playoff luckPlayoffsClose gamesCloseCheap / unluckyCheap / unl.Schedule drawSched.
* small sample, outside the standardization pool. Six components, weighted: all-play luck 30%, wins over all-play expected wins; availability 20%, the share of starter weeks lost to injury, weighted by the player's scoring; playoff luck 15%, title-path wins over the share of each week's scores beaten, per game and shrunk toward zero for a short sample, shown as wins over expected in so many games; close games 15%, decided by 5 points or fewer; cheap wins and unlucky losses 10%, wins scored below the week's median and losses scored above it; schedule draw 10%, the league's average that week minus the points scored against you, per game.
All-play luck+0.8weight 30%
Availability1.5%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games1-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky2/1weight 10%
Schedule draw+2.7weight 10%
All-play luck+1.0weight 30%
Availability6.6%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games0-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky1/0weight 10%
Schedule draw+19.3weight 10%
All-play luck+0.8weight 30%
Availability5.4%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games0-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky1/0weight 10%
Schedule draw+19.8weight 10%
All-play luck0.0weight 30%
Availability3.1%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games0-1weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky0/0weight 10%
Schedule draw−6.1weight 10%
All-play luck−0.3weight 30%
Availability6.0%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games0-1weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky1/0weight 10%
Schedule draw+6.6weight 10%
All-play luck0.0weight 30%
Availability9.2%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games1-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky0/0weight 10%
Schedule draw−19.6weight 10%
All-play luck+0.1weight 30%
Availability11.2%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games0-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky0/0weight 10%
Schedule draw+9.5weight 10%
All-play luck−0.5weight 30%
Availability5.2%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games0-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky1/1weight 10%
Schedule draw−4.4weight 10%
All-play luck0.0weight 30%
Availability12.4%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games0-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky1/0weight 10%
Schedule draw+0.1weight 10%
All-play luck−0.6weight 30%
Availability2.7%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games0-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky1/1weight 10%
Schedule draw−20.5weight 10%
All-play luck−0.5weight 30%
Availability6.1%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games2-1weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky0/1weight 10%
Schedule draw−11.7weight 10%
All-play luck−0.9weight 30%
Availability6.7%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games0-1weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky0/0weight 10%
Schedule draw+4.4weight 10%
RankManagerIndexAll-play luckAll-playAvailabilityAvail.Playoff luckPlayoffsClose gamesCloseCheap / unluckyCheap / unl.Schedule drawSched.
Small samples · under 8 games in 2025 · not ranked
RankManagerIndexAll-play luckAll-playAvailabilityAvail.Playoff luckPlayoffsClose gamesCloseCheap / unluckyCheap / unl.Schedule drawSched.
* small sample, outside the standardization pool. Six components, weighted: all-play luck 30%, wins over all-play expected wins; availability 20%, the share of starter weeks lost to injury, weighted by the player's scoring; playoff luck 15%, title-path wins over the share of each week's scores beaten, per game and shrunk toward zero for a short sample, shown as wins over expected in so many games; close games 15%, decided by 5 points or fewer; cheap wins and unlucky losses 10%, wins scored below the week's median and losses scored above it; schedule draw 10%, the league's average that week minus the points scored against you, per game.
All-play luck+3.3weight 30%
Availability4.3%weight 20%
Playoff luck−0.7 in 1weight 15%
Close games1-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky4/0weight 10%
Schedule draw+4.4weight 10%
All-play luck+0.9weight 30%
Availability3.2%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games1-1weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky3/0weight 10%
Schedule draw+2.1weight 10%
All-play luck+2.6weight 30%
Availability13.5%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games2-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky4/1weight 10%
Schedule draw+6.5weight 10%
All-play luck+1.2weight 30%
Availability9.0%weight 20%
Playoff luck+0.2 in 2weight 15%
Close games0-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky2/2weight 10%
Schedule draw+6.7weight 10%
All-play luck+1.6weight 30%
Availability11.4%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games0-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky2/0weight 10%
Schedule draw+7.4weight 10%
All-play luck−0.2weight 30%
Availability7.4%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games1-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky2/1weight 10%
Schedule draw−3.8weight 10%
All-play luck+1.2weight 30%
Availability11.0%weight 20%
Playoff luck−0.4 in 3weight 15%
Close games0-1weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky1/0weight 10%
Schedule draw+9.4weight 10%
All-play luck−1.1weight 30%
Availability5.3%weight 20%
Playoff luck−0.6 in 1weight 15%
Close games0-1weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky1/3weight 10%
Schedule draw−7.0weight 10%
All-play luck−0.8weight 30%
Availability13.1%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games0-1weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky2/0weight 10%
Schedule draw−0.6weight 10%
All-play luck−2.0weight 30%
Availability11.5%weight 20%
Playoff luck0.0 in 1weight 15%
Close games1-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky1/3weight 10%
Schedule draw−9.4weight 10%
All-play luck−2.8weight 30%
Availability10.0%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games2-1weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky0/2weight 10%
Schedule draw−5.4weight 10%
All-play luck−3.2weight 30%
Availability9.5%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games0-2weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky0/3weight 10%
Schedule draw−11.0weight 10%
All-play luck−0.7weight 30%
Availability6.8%weight 20%
Playoff luck+0.4 in 2weight 15%
Close games0-1weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky0/1weight 10%
Schedule draw+9.0weight 10%
RankManagerIndexAll-play luckAll-playAvailabilityAvail.Playoff luckPlayoffsClose gamesCloseCheap / unluckyCheap / unl.Schedule drawSched.
* small sample, outside the standardization pool. Six components, weighted: all-play luck 30%, wins over all-play expected wins; availability 20%, the share of starter weeks lost to injury, weighted by the player's scoring; playoff luck 15%, title-path wins over the share of each week's scores beaten, per game and shrunk toward zero for a short sample, shown as wins over expected in so many games; close games 15%, decided by 5 points or fewer; cheap wins and unlucky losses 10%, wins scored below the week's median and losses scored above it; schedule draw 10%, the league's average that week minus the points scored against you, per game.
All-play luck+1.8weight 30%
Availability5.6%weight 20%
Playoff luck+0.3 in 3weight 15%
Close games1-1weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky3/1weight 10%
Schedule draw+3.4weight 10%
All-play luck+0.9weight 30%
Availability12.0%weight 20%
Playoff luck−0.3 in 2weight 15%
Close games1-1weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky2/0weight 10%
Schedule draw−0.8weight 10%
All-play luck−0.2weight 30%
Availability6.4%weight 20%
Playoff luck−0.4 in 1weight 15%
Close games1-1weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky2/1weight 10%
Schedule draw+0.6weight 10%
All-play luck+1.5weight 30%
Availability15.3%weight 20%
Playoff luck−0.7 in 1weight 15%
Close games0-1weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky2/1weight 10%
Schedule draw+13.5weight 10%
All-play luck−0.2weight 30%
Availability6.1%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games0-1weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky1/0weight 10%
Schedule draw−3.5weight 10%
All-play luck−0.3weight 30%
Availability11.2%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games2-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky1/1weight 10%
Schedule draw−7.8weight 10%
All-play luck+0.1weight 30%
Availability9.3%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games1-2weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky1/1weight 10%
Schedule draw+5.4weight 10%
All-play luck−1.4weight 30%
Availability5.3%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games1-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky1/1weight 10%
Schedule draw−3.5weight 10%
All-play luck−0.1weight 30%
Availability10.5%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games0-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky0/0weight 10%
Schedule draw−1.6weight 10%
All-play luck+0.2weight 30%
Availability11.6%weight 20%
Playoff luck−0.5 in 2weight 15%
Close games1-2weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky2/1weight 10%
Schedule draw+0.6weight 10%
All-play luck−0.5weight 30%
Availability10.8%weight 20%
Playoff luck−0.6 in 1weight 15%
Close games2-1weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky1/2weight 10%
Schedule draw−1.2weight 10%
All-play luck−1.8weight 30%
Availability4.5%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games2-2weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky1/2weight 10%
Schedule draw−5.1weight 10%
RankManagerIndexAll-play luckAll-playAvailabilityAvail.Playoff luckPlayoffsClose gamesCloseCheap / unluckyCheap / unl.Schedule drawSched.
* small sample, outside the standardization pool. Six components, weighted: all-play luck 30%, wins over all-play expected wins; availability 20%, the share of starter weeks lost to injury, weighted by the player's scoring; playoff luck 15%, title-path wins over the share of each week's scores beaten, per game and shrunk toward zero for a short sample, shown as wins over expected in so many games; close games 15%, decided by 5 points or fewer; cheap wins and unlucky losses 10%, wins scored below the week's median and losses scored above it; schedule draw 10%, the league's average that week minus the points scored against you, per game.
All-play luck+1.7weight 30%
Availability4.1%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games1-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky4/0weight 10%
Schedule draw+6.2weight 10%
All-play luck+1.9weight 30%
Availability7.0%weight 20%
Playoff luck+0.5 in 3weight 15%
Close games3-1weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky3/0weight 10%
Schedule draw−5.7weight 10%
All-play luck+0.8weight 30%
Availability2.2%weight 20%
Playoff luck0.0 in 3weight 15%
Close games0-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky2/0weight 10%
Schedule draw+4.4weight 10%
All-play luck+2.6weight 30%
Availability6.8%weight 20%
Playoff luck−0.6 in 1weight 15%
Close games1-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky4/1weight 10%
Schedule draw+7.2weight 10%
All-play luck+1.2weight 30%
Availability6.3%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games0-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky3/1weight 10%
Schedule draw+8.1weight 10%
All-play luck+1.5weight 30%
Availability10.4%weight 20%
Playoff luck−0.4 in 1weight 15%
Close games2-1weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky4/1weight 10%
Schedule draw+9.7weight 10%
All-play luck+0.4weight 30%
Availability5.2%weight 20%
Playoff luck−0.1 in 1weight 15%
Close games1-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky1/1weight 10%
Schedule draw−9.3weight 10%
All-play luck−0.3weight 30%
Availability8.9%weight 20%
Playoff luck−0.7 in 1weight 15%
Close games2-1weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky1/1weight 10%
Schedule draw−4.2weight 10%
All-play luck−3.4weight 30%
Availability2.8%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games0-1weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky2/6weight 10%
Schedule draw−10.6weight 10%
All-play luck−2.2weight 30%
Availability8.2%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games0-3weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky0/1weight 10%
Schedule draw+1.7weight 10%
All-play luck−1.3weight 30%
Availability14.4%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games0-1weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky0/1weight 10%
Schedule draw+4.3weight 10%
All-play luck−3.1weight 30%
Availability6.3%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games0-2weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky0/1weight 10%
Schedule draw−11.8weight 10%
RankManagerIndexAll-play luckAll-playAvailabilityAvail.Playoff luckPlayoffsClose gamesCloseCheap / unluckyCheap / unl.Schedule drawSched.
* small sample, outside the standardization pool. Six components, weighted: all-play luck 30%, wins over all-play expected wins; availability 20%, the share of starter weeks lost to injury, weighted by the player's scoring; playoff luck 15%, title-path wins over the share of each week's scores beaten, per game and shrunk toward zero for a short sample, shown as wins over expected in so many games; close games 15%, decided by 5 points or fewer; cheap wins and unlucky losses 10%, wins scored below the week's median and losses scored above it; schedule draw 10%, the league's average that week minus the points scored against you, per game.
All-play luck+1.9weight 30%
Availability6.7%weight 20%
Playoff luck+0.1 in 3weight 15%
Close games2-2weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky3/0weight 10%
Schedule draw+11.0weight 10%
All-play luck+1.3weight 30%
Availability5.1%weight 20%
Playoff luck+0.9 in 2weight 15%
Close games2-1weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky1/2weight 10%
Schedule draw+0.3weight 10%
All-play luck+0.9weight 30%
Availability5.9%weight 20%
Playoff luck−0.3 in 1weight 15%
Close games1-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky2/0weight 10%
Schedule draw−1.1weight 10%
All-play luck+1.2weight 30%
Availability10.3%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games1-1weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky2/0weight 10%
Schedule draw+7.4weight 10%
All-play luck+0.3weight 30%
Availability2.5%weight 20%
Playoff luck−0.6 in 1weight 15%
Close games0-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky2/1weight 10%
Schedule draw−1.4weight 10%
All-play luck+0.6weight 30%
Availability9.1%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games1-2weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky3/1weight 10%
Schedule draw+7.2weight 10%
All-play luck+0.6weight 30%
Availability8.0%weight 20%
Playoff luck−0.2 in 2weight 15%
Close games0-2weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky3/2weight 10%
Schedule draw−0.4weight 10%
All-play luck−1.3weight 30%
Availability8.9%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games2-2weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky2/2weight 10%
Schedule draw−0.3weight 10%
All-play luck−0.1weight 30%
Availability13.8%weight 20%
Playoff luck−0.1 in 1weight 15%
Close games0-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky1/1weight 10%
Schedule draw+1.4weight 10%
All-play luck−0.2weight 30%
Availability15.0%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games1-1weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky2/0weight 10%
Schedule draw−3.7weight 10%
All-play luck−2.9weight 30%
Availability5.3%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games2-1weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky1/3weight 10%
Schedule draw−13.3weight 10%
All-play luck−2.4weight 30%
Availability7.4%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games2-2weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky0/2weight 10%
Schedule draw−7.1weight 10%
RankManagerIndexAll-play luckAll-playAvailabilityAvail.Playoff luckPlayoffsClose gamesCloseCheap / unluckyCheap / unl.Schedule drawSched.
* small sample, outside the standardization pool. Six components, weighted: all-play luck 30%, wins over all-play expected wins; availability 20%, the share of starter weeks lost to injury, weighted by the player's scoring; playoff luck 15%, title-path wins over the share of each week's scores beaten, per game and shrunk toward zero for a short sample, shown as wins over expected in so many games; close games 15%, decided by 5 points or fewer; cheap wins and unlucky losses 10%, wins scored below the week's median and losses scored above it; schedule draw 10%, the league's average that week minus the points scored against you, per game.
All-play luck+0.1weight 30%
Availability2.1%weight 20%
Playoff luck+0.3 in 3weight 15%
Close games1-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky1/0weight 10%
Schedule draw+12.2weight 10%
All-play luck+1.2weight 30%
Availability5.0%weight 20%
Playoff luck−0.6 in 1weight 15%
Close games4-1weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky2/2weight 10%
Schedule draw−0.2weight 10%
All-play luck+2.5weight 30%
Availability9.8%weight 20%
Playoff luck−0.4 in 1weight 15%
Close games1-1weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky5/1weight 10%
Schedule draw−2.9weight 10%
All-play luck+2.5weight 30%
Availability15.0%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games2-1weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky4/1weight 10%
Schedule draw+4.2weight 10%
All-play luck+0.3weight 30%
Availability9.5%weight 20%
Playoff luck−0.1 in 1weight 15%
Close games2-1weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky2/2weight 10%
Schedule draw+0.6weight 10%
All-play luck+0.1weight 30%
Availability8.7%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games3-2weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky2/1weight 10%
Schedule draw−4.6weight 10%
All-play luck−0.5weight 30%
Availability10.6%weight 20%
Playoff luck+0.2 in 3weight 15%
Close games0-1weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky0/0weight 10%
Schedule draw+9.6weight 10%
All-play luck−0.5weight 30%
Availability11.6%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games1-3weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky3/1weight 10%
Schedule draw−1.8weight 10%
All-play luck+0.1weight 30%
Availability12.4%weight 20%
Playoff luck−0.9 in 1weight 15%
Close games1-1weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky3/3weight 10%
Schedule draw−6.7weight 10%
All-play luck−1.0weight 30%
Availability12.7%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games0-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky0/1weight 10%
Schedule draw−7.6weight 10%
All-play luck−2.3weight 30%
Availability10.2%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games0-2weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky0/3weight 10%
Schedule draw+2.9weight 10%
All-play luck−2.5weight 30%
Availability10.4%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games0-2weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky1/2weight 10%
Schedule draw−5.7weight 10%
RankManagerIndexAll-play luckAll-playAvailabilityAvail.Playoff luckPlayoffsClose gamesCloseCheap / unluckyCheap / unl.Schedule drawSched.
* small sample, outside the standardization pool. Six components, weighted: all-play luck 30%, wins over all-play expected wins; availability 20%, the share of starter weeks lost to injury, weighted by the player's scoring; playoff luck 15%, title-path wins over the share of each week's scores beaten, per game and shrunk toward zero for a short sample, shown as wins over expected in so many games; close games 15%, decided by 5 points or fewer; cheap wins and unlucky losses 10%, wins scored below the week's median and losses scored above it; schedule draw 10%, the league's average that week minus the points scored against you, per game.
All-play luck+4.1weight 30%
Availability5.4%weight 20%
Playoff luck−0.5 in 1weight 15%
Close games1-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky5/1weight 10%
Schedule draw+19.5weight 10%
All-play luck+2.6weight 30%
Availability9.0%weight 20%
Playoff luck−0.9 in 2weight 15%
Close games1-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky4/1weight 10%
Schedule draw+3.1weight 10%
All-play luck+1.4weight 30%
Availability7.2%weight 20%
Playoff luck−0.6 in 1weight 15%
Close games1-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky1/0weight 10%
Schedule draw+5.4weight 10%
All-play luck−0.4weight 30%
Availability5.2%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games1-1weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky2/0weight 10%
Schedule draw−4.7weight 10%
All-play luck+0.8weight 30%
Availability12.7%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games1-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky3/1weight 10%
Schedule draw−3.6weight 10%
All-play luck−0.1weight 30%
Availability5.7%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games0-1weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky1/1weight 10%
Schedule draw0.0weight 10%
All-play luck−1.5weight 30%
Availability5.9%weight 20%
Playoff luck+0.1 in 3weight 15%
Close games1-2weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky0/2weight 10%
Schedule draw−0.3weight 10%
All-play luck−1.4weight 30%
Availability2.7%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games0-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky0/3weight 10%
Schedule draw−3.5weight 10%
All-play luck+0.6weight 30%
Availability13.9%weight 20%
Playoff luck−0.4 in 1weight 15%
Close games0-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky1/1weight 10%
Schedule draw+4.2weight 10%
All-play luck−1.6weight 30%
Availability6.7%weight 20%
Playoff luck−0.5 in 2weight 15%
Close games0-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky0/1weight 10%
Schedule draw−0.6weight 10%
All-play luck−2.1weight 30%
Availability8.6%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games0-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky1/0weight 10%
Schedule draw−14.3weight 10%
All-play luck−2.5weight 30%
Availability13.9%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games0-2weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky1/3weight 10%
Schedule draw−5.1weight 10%
RankManagerIndexAll-play luckAll-playAvailabilityAvail.Playoff luckPlayoffsClose gamesCloseCheap / unluckyCheap / unl.Schedule drawSched.
* small sample, outside the standardization pool. Six components, weighted: all-play luck 30%, wins over all-play expected wins; availability 20%, the share of starter weeks lost to injury, weighted by the player's scoring; playoff luck 15%, title-path wins over the share of each week's scores beaten, per game and shrunk toward zero for a short sample, shown as wins over expected in so many games; close games 15%, decided by 5 points or fewer; cheap wins and unlucky losses 10%, wins scored below the week's median and losses scored above it; schedule draw 10%, the league's average that week minus the points scored against you, per game.
All-play luck+1.3weight 30%
Availability0.3%weight 20%
Playoff luck+0.1 in 2weight 15%
Close games2-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky2/0weight 10%
Schedule draw−1.7weight 10%
All-play luck+1.6weight 30%
Availability1.3%weight 20%
Playoff luck+0.1 in 2weight 15%
Close games0-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky1/1weight 10%
Schedule draw+5.7weight 10%
All-play luck+0.6weight 30%
Availability9.2%weight 20%
Playoff luck+0.3 in 2weight 15%
Close games0-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky1/0weight 10%
Schedule draw+14.4weight 10%
All-play luck+0.2weight 30%
Availability3.4%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games1-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky3/2weight 10%
Schedule draw+2.3weight 10%
All-play luck+0.1weight 30%
Availability6.1%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games0-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky1/1weight 10%
Schedule draw−2.6weight 10%
All-play luck−0.6weight 30%
Availability4.4%weight 20%
Playoff luck−0.2 in 2weight 15%
Close games0-2weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky2/0weight 10%
Schedule draw−2.8weight 10%
All-play luck−0.1weight 30%
Availability4.9%weight 20%
Playoff luck−0.3 in 1weight 15%
Close games0-1weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky2/2weight 10%
Schedule draw−2.0weight 10%
All-play luck−1.7weight 30%
Availability4.3%weight 20%
Playoff luck0.0 in 1weight 15%
Close games1-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky1/3weight 10%
Schedule draw−6.5weight 10%
All-play luck−1.3weight 30%
Availability7.9%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games0-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky1/1weight 10%
Schedule draw−5.1weight 10%
All-play luck−0.1weight 30%
Availability16.4%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games0-1weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky1/0weight 10%
Schedule draw−1.8weight 10%
RankManagerIndexAll-play luckAll-playAvailabilityAvail.Playoff luckPlayoffsClose gamesCloseCheap / unluckyCheap / unl.Schedule drawSched.
* small sample, outside the standardization pool. Six components, weighted: all-play luck 30%, wins over all-play expected wins; availability 20%, the share of starter weeks lost to injury, weighted by the player's scoring; playoff luck 15%, title-path wins over the share of each week's scores beaten, per game and shrunk toward zero for a short sample, shown as wins over expected in so many games; close games 15%, decided by 5 points or fewer; cheap wins and unlucky losses 10%, wins scored below the week's median and losses scored above it; schedule draw 10%, the league's average that week minus the points scored against you, per game.
All-play luck+1.1weight 30%
Availability5.0%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games1-1weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky3/1weight 10%
Schedule draw+6.1weight 10%
All-play luck+0.5weight 30%
Availability2.3%weight 20%
Playoff luck0.0 in 1weight 15%
Close games1-2weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky1/1weight 10%
Schedule draw+8.7weight 10%
All-play luck−0.4weight 30%
Availability0.8%weight 20%
Playoff luck+0.1 in 2weight 15%
Close games2-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky1/1weight 10%
Schedule draw−1.7weight 10%
All-play luck+1.3weight 30%
Availability5.2%weight 20%
Playoff luck−0.3 in 1weight 15%
Close games3-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky1/0weight 10%
Schedule draw−10.9weight 10%
All-play luck+0.8weight 30%
Availability5.4%weight 20%
Playoff luck−0.1 in 1weight 15%
Close games0-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky2/1weight 10%
Schedule draw+4.9weight 10%
All-play luck+0.2weight 30%
Availability3.4%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games0-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky1/0weight 10%
Schedule draw+0.5weight 10%
All-play luck+0.5weight 30%
Availability5.3%weight 20%
Playoff luck−0.6 in 1weight 15%
Close games2-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky1/0weight 10%
Schedule draw−7.7weight 10%
All-play luck+1.0weight 30%
Availability14.2%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games0-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky2/0weight 10%
Schedule draw+0.5weight 10%
All-play luck−1.3weight 30%
Availability3.1%weight 20%
Playoff luck0.0 in 2weight 15%
Close games1-1weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky1/1weight 10%
Schedule draw+7.8weight 10%
All-play luck−0.4weight 30%
Availability2.8%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games0-2weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky2/1weight 10%
Schedule draw−2.8weight 10%
All-play luck−1.5weight 30%
Availability2.3%weight 20%
Playoff luck+0.3 in 3weight 15%
Close games1-1weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky0/2weight 10%
Schedule draw−1.8weight 10%
All-play luck−1.7weight 30%
Availability4.5%weight 20%
Playoff luck+0.3 in 3weight 15%
Close games0-4weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky0/1weight 10%
Schedule draw−3.7weight 10%
RankManagerIndexAll-play luckAll-playAvailabilityAvail.Playoff luckPlayoffsClose gamesCloseCheap / unluckyCheap / unl.Schedule drawSched.
* small sample, outside the standardization pool. Six components, weighted: all-play luck 30%, wins over all-play expected wins; availability 20%, the share of starter weeks lost to injury, weighted by the player's scoring; playoff luck 15%, title-path wins over the share of each week's scores beaten, per game and shrunk toward zero for a short sample, shown as wins over expected in so many games; close games 15%, decided by 5 points or fewer; cheap wins and unlucky losses 10%, wins scored below the week's median and losses scored above it; schedule draw 10%, the league's average that week minus the points scored against you, per game.
All-play luck+2.2weight 30%
Availability0.0%weight 20%
Playoff luck+0.9 in 2weight 15%
Close games0-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky2/0weight 10%
Schedule draw+7.7weight 10%
All-play luck+2.5weight 30%
Availability0.5%weight 20%
Playoff luck+0.3 in 3weight 15%
Close games1-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky2/0weight 10%
Schedule draw+5.1weight 10%
All-play luck+1.2weight 30%
Availability1.3%weight 20%
Playoff luck−0.3 in 1weight 15%
Close games1-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky3/1weight 10%
Schedule draw+6.9weight 10%
All-play luck+1.8weight 30%
Availability5.0%weight 20%
Playoff luck+0.1 in 2weight 15%
Close games2-2weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky1/1weight 10%
Schedule draw+7.1weight 10%
All-play luck+0.4weight 30%
Availability3.1%weight 20%
Playoff luck+0.9 in 3weight 15%
Close games1-1weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky2/0weight 10%
Schedule draw+0.7weight 10%
All-play luck−0.4weight 30%
Availability0.3%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games0-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky2/2weight 10%
Schedule draw+2.7weight 10%
All-play luck−1.5weight 30%
Availability0.0%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games1-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky2/1weight 10%
Schedule draw−11.8weight 10%
All-play luck+0.8weight 30%
Availability7.8%weight 20%
Playoff luck−0.9 in 1weight 15%
Close games1-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky2/1weight 10%
Schedule draw+3.2weight 10%
All-play luck−0.6weight 30%
Availability7.0%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games1-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky2/1weight 10%
Schedule draw−4.8weight 10%
All-play luck−0.1weight 30%
Availability8.5%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games1-2weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky2/1weight 10%
Schedule draw+3.0weight 10%
All-play luck−0.3weight 30%
Availability4.9%weight 20%
Playoff luck0.0 in 1weight 15%
Close games0-1weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky0/2weight 10%
Schedule draw−2.5weight 10%
All-play luck−1.9weight 30%
Availability0.6%weight 20%
Playoff luck−0.4 in 1weight 15%
Close games1-0weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky0/3weight 10%
Schedule draw−6.4weight 10%
All-play luck−2.2weight 30%
Availability1.6%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games0-1weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky1/3weight 10%
Schedule draw−6.5weight 10%
All-play luck−1.9weight 30%
Availability3.0%weight 20%
Playoff luckno berthweight 15%
Close games0-3weight 15%
Cheap / unlucky1/0weight 10%
Schedule draw−4.5weight 10%
The method
All-play luck 30%Availability 20%Playoff luck 15%Close games 15%Cheap / unlucky 10%Schedule draw 10%
Six components: all-play luck 30%, availability 20%, playoff luck 15%, close games 15%, cheap wins and unlucky losses 10%, schedule draw 10%. Each is standardized across the current managers with 30 or more games, and the index is 50 plus 10 times the weighted z. Availability counts starter weeks lost to injury, weighted by the player's scoring. Playoff luck reads the title-path games the way all-play reads the regular season, per game over the games plus two; no playoff game counts as neutral. Under 30 games is marked small sample, left out of the pool and not ranked. A season view standardizes within that season across everyone who played it and ranks the managers with 8 or more games in it.