2022·Week 6
3 for 3 · C on paper, C in the books
On paper even, in the books even, in the long run Caleb, because Chase became Higgins.
The deal
weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
JC
Ja'Marr ChaseWR1 week · 1 start · 33.0 started, flipped wk8 to Alex for Tee Higgins and Isiah Pacheco, credit 90.733.01 start
Ja'Marr ChaseWR1 week · 1 start · 33.0 started, flipped wk8 to Alex for Tee Higgins and Isiah Pacheco, credit 90.733.01 startSide total519.0519.0 direct · 609.7 with conversion
$25 FAAB
Side total469.8469.8 direct
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
Two grades and the long run
on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2022 · the long run across tenures
On paperC/C24.6 to Caleb, 2.05 a weekCaleb's sideJoe Mixon 224.6, Joe Burrow 213.8, Ja'Marr Chase 198.8637.2Alex's sideJosh Allen 239.1, Stefon Diggs 230.7, Ezekiel Elliott 142.9612.7Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksC/C+2.1 to Caleb, 0.18 a weekCaleb's sideJoe Burrow 247.2, Joe Mixon 154.1, Ja'Marr Chase 143.3544.6Alex's sideJosh Allen 224.9, Stefon Diggs 177.0, Ezekiel Elliott 140.6542.5What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runB/C+139.9 to Calebdirectwhat Caleb started himself519.0with conversionthe flips credited back609.7againstwhat the other side started469.8Alex's side-49.2that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way-84.7Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
Caleb's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Joe Mixon15.471.001.201.001.001.1020.4211224.6Joe Burrow19.441.001.001.001.001.0019.4411213.8Ja'Marr Chase16.731.001.201.001.000.9018.0711198.8Side total637.2
Alex's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Stefon Diggs19.971.001.001.051.001.0020.9711230.7Ezekiel Elliott12.661.001.200.951.000.9012.9911142.9Josh Allen25.881.000.801.051.001.0021.7411239.1Side total612.7
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.
The season after
2022, before and after week 6 · the trade week marked · regular season
Calebfinished 10thBefore2-3120.6 a gameAfter3-6122.6 a game1234567891011121314ConsConsConsAlexfinished 4thBefore2-3129.0 a gameAfter6-3115.6 a game1234567891011121314QFSF3rdwinlosstrade weekbye or out
The chain
the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
This deal · 2022 wk6Caleb and Alex, 3 for 3519.0 direct to Caleb
nothing went further
The context
Trade in league history76 of 123
Caleb's trades24 his side B, +139.9
Alex's trades45 his side C, -49.2
Blockbuster3rd of 8 854.8 combined
Fleecenot in the list
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.