2022·Week 1
3 for 4 · B on paper, C in the books
On paper Alex, in the books even, in the long run Caleb, and Smith started 11 weeks for him.
The deal
weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
Side total303.8303.8 direct
BH
Breece HallRB1 week · 1 start · 10.1 started, flipped wk2 to Curtis for Antonio Gibson, Amon-Ra St. Brown and $3 FAAB, credit 67.310.11 start
Breece HallRB1 week · 1 start · 10.1 started, flipped wk2 to Curtis for Antonio Gibson, Amon-Ra St. Brown and $3 FAAB, credit 67.310.11 start
Side total38.438.4 direct · 105.7 with conversion
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
Two grades and the long run
on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2022 · the long run across tenures
On paperD/B141.8 to Alex, 8.34 a weekCaleb's sideEzekiel Elliott 253.6, DeVonta Smith 174.7, Rachaad White 0.0428.3Alex's sideMike Williams 222.1, James Robinson 213.3, Gabe Davis 134.7, Breece Hall 0.0570.1Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksC/C+27.6 to Caleb, 1.62 a weekCaleb's sideDeVonta Smith 240.9, Ezekiel Elliott 184.8, Rachaad White 137.6563.3Alex's sideMike Williams 169.3, Gabe Davis 164.7, Breece Hall 115.1, James Robinson 86.6535.7What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runA/F+265.4 to Calebdirectwhat Caleb started himself303.8with conversionthe flips credited back303.8againstwhat the other side started38.4Alex's side-198.1that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way+224.5Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
Caleb's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Ezekiel Elliott15.851.001.001.001.001.0015.8516253.6DeVonta Smith10.921.001.001.001.001.0010.9216174.7Rachaad White0.001.001.001.001.001.000.00160.0Side total428.3
Alex's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Mike Williams13.881.001.001.001.001.0013.8816222.1Gabe Davis8.421.001.001.001.001.008.4216134.7James Robinson13.331.001.001.001.001.0013.3316213.3Breece Hall0.001.001.001.001.001.000.00160.0Side total570.1
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.
The season after
2022, before and after week 1 · the trade week marked · regular season
Calebfinished 10thBefore—no games before itAfter5-9121.9 a game1234567891011121314ConsConsConsAlexfinished 4thBefore—no games before itAfter8-6120.4 a game1234567891011121314QFSF3rdwinlosstrade weekbye or out
The chain
the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
This deal · 2022 wk1Caleb and Alex, 3 for 4303.8 direct to Caleb
The context
Trade in league history58 of 123
Caleb's trades24 his side A, +265.4
Alex's trades45 his side F, -198.1
Blockbusternot in the list
Fleece8th of 8 224.5 margin
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.