2022·Week 5

5 for 5 · C on paper, A in the books · a ring deal
Austin's gradeC → Aon paper, then in the booksAlex's gradeC → Fon paper, then in the books
The long run+910.1to Austin with conversion credit
RingYesHill and St. Brown started the 2022 final

On paper even, in the books Austin, in the long run Austin, because Henry and Wilson became Walker and Kittle. He won the title that year with Hill in the lineup.

The deal

weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
Austin receivedC→A
THTyreek HillWR12 weeks · 11 starts · 229.8 started229.811 starts
JHJalen HurtsQB12 weeks · 9 starts · 228.6 started228.69 starts
ASAmon-Ra St. BrownWR12 weeks · 11 starts · 168.4 started168.411 starts
DHDerrick HenryRB3 weeks · 2 starts · 44.0 started, flipped wk8 to David Cheung for Kenneth Walker, credit 232.944.02 starts
JWJeff WilsonRB0 weeks · 0 starts · 0.0 started, flipped wk5 to Caleb for George Kittle, credit 145.10.0never started
Side total670.8670.8 direct · 1,048.8 with conversion
Alex receivedC→F
JBJoe BurrowQB2 weeks · 2 starts · 49.8 started49.82 starts
JCJa'Marr ChaseWR2 weeks · 2 starts · 44.2 started44.22 starts
JMJoe MixonRB2 weeks · 2 starts · 28.6 started28.62 starts
THTee HigginsWR3 weeks · 2 starts · 14.3 started, flipped wk8 to Caleb for Christian Kirk, Ja'Marr Chase and Brian Robinson, credit 224.614.32 starts
NMNyheim Miller-HinesRB2 weeks · 1 start · 1.8 started1.81 start
Side total138.7138.7 direct · 363.3 with conversion
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.

Two grades and the long run

on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2022 · the long run across tenures
On paperC/C8.4 to Alex, 0.65 a weekAustin's sideDerrick Henry 307.0, Jalen Hurts 216.3, Tyreek Hill 189.0, Amon-Ra St. Brown 169.6, Jeff Wilson 101.0982.9Alex's sideJoe Burrow 297.4, Joe Mixon 267.7, Ja'Marr Chase 222.9, Tee Higgins 113.5, Nyheim Miller-Hines 89.8991.3Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksA/F+239.0 to Austin, 18.39 a weekAustin's sideJalen Hurts 263.3, Tyreek Hill 251.7, Derrick Henry 221.3, Amon-Ra St. Brown 183.6, Jeff Wilson 78.7998.5Alex's sideJoe Burrow 264.5, Joe Mixon 165.9, Tee Higgins 158.0, Ja'Marr Chase 155.3, Nyheim Miller-Hines 15.8759.5What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runA/F+910.1 to Austindirectwhat Austin started himself670.8with conversionthe flips credited back1,048.8againstwhat the other side started138.7Alex's side-307.5that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way+454.0Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
Austin's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Derrick Henry19.381.001.201.001.001.1025.5812307.0Tyreek Hill19.611.001.001.050.850.9015.7512189.0Jeff Wilson8.591.151.000.951.000.908.4212101.0Jalen Hurts21.461.000.801.051.001.0018.0312216.3Amon-Ra St. Brown17.591.001.001.050.850.9014.1312169.6
Side total982.9
Alex's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Joe Mixon15.841.071.201.001.001.1022.3112267.7Nyheim Miller-Hines7.291.001.200.951.000.907.481289.8Joe Burrow19.651.051.201.001.001.0024.7812297.4Tee Higgins15.461.000.801.000.850.909.4612113.5Ja'Marr Chase17.201.001.201.001.000.9018.5812222.9
Side total991.3
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.

The season after

2022, before and after week 5 · the trade week marked · regular season
Austinfinished 1st, championBefore3-1119.4 a gameAfter8-2127.9 a game123456789101112131415SFFAlexfinished 4thBefore1-3132.8 a gameAfter7-3115.4 a game1234567891011121314QFSF3rd
winlosstrade weekbye or out

The chain

the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
This deal · 2022 wk5Austin and Alex, 5 for 5670.8 direct to Austin
2022 wk8 · Austin to David CheungDHDerrick Henry out, Kenneth Walker in175.1 for Austin · credit 232.92022 wk5 · Austin to CalebJWJeff Wilson out, George Kittle in145.1 for Austin · credit 145.12022 wk8 · Alex to CalebTHTee Higgins out, Christian Kirk, Ja'Marr Chase and Brian Robinson in114.5 for Alex · credit 224.6
2023 · third hopKWKenneth Walker to Alexthe last hop the credit follows2022 · third hopCKChristian Kirk to Stephanthe last hop the credit follows2022 · third hopBRBrian Robinson to Stephanthe last hop the credit follows

The context

Trade in league history75 of 123
Austin's trades33 his best
Alex's trades45 his side F, -307.5
Blockbuster1st of 8 887.6 combined
Fleece1st of 8 454.0 margin
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.