2023·Week 5
4 for 4 · C on paper, C in the books
On paper even, in the books even, in the long run Austin, because White and Pacheco became Mahomes and San Francisco 49ers.
The deal
weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
IP
Isiah PachecoRB5 weeks · 5 starts · 58.5 started, flipped wk10 to Stephan for Patrick Mahomes, Austin Ekeler and San Francisco 49ers, credit 53.158.55 starts
Isiah PachecoRB5 weeks · 5 starts · 58.5 started, flipped wk10 to Stephan for Patrick Mahomes, Austin Ekeler and San Francisco 49ers, credit 53.158.55 startsRW
Rachaad WhiteRB5 weeks · 3 starts · 52.6 started, flipped wk10 to Stephan for Patrick Mahomes, Austin Ekeler and San Francisco 49ers, credit 74.252.63 starts
Rachaad WhiteRB5 weeks · 3 starts · 52.6 started, flipped wk10 to Stephan for Patrick Mahomes, Austin Ekeler and San Francisco 49ers, credit 74.252.63 starts
Side total385.6385.6 direct · 512.9 with conversion
DG
Dallas GoedertTE5 weeks · 5 starts · 70.2 started, flipped wk10 to Mikayel for David Njoku, Gabe Davis and Kyren Williams, credit 0.070.25 starts
Dallas GoedertTE5 weeks · 5 starts · 70.2 started, flipped wk10 to Mikayel for David Njoku, Gabe Davis and Kyren Williams, credit 0.070.25 startsKW
Kenneth WalkerRB5 weeks · 4 starts · 42.7 started, flipped wk10 to Curtis for David Njoku, Gabe Davis and Kyren Williams, credit 151.542.74 starts
Kenneth WalkerRB5 weeks · 4 starts · 42.7 started, flipped wk10 to Curtis for David Njoku, Gabe Davis and Kyren Williams, credit 151.542.74 startsSide total284.7284.7 direct · 436.2 with conversion
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
Two grades and the long run
on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2023 · the long run across tenures
On paperC/C18.5 to Alex, 1.43 a weekAustin's sideLamar Jackson 251.0, Darren Waller 151.8, Rachaad White 142.9, Isiah Pacheco 102.7648.4Alex's sideDeAndre Hopkins 205.1, Kenneth Walker 171.4, Brock Purdy 170.5, Dallas Goedert 120.0667.0Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksC/C+70.3 to Austin, 5.40 a weekAustin's sideLamar Jackson 281.5, Rachaad White 209.4, Isiah Pacheco 157.9, Darren Waller 63.3712.1Alex's sideBrock Purdy 241.6, DeAndre Hopkins 169.4, Kenneth Walker 116.7, Dallas Goedert 114.1641.8What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runA/B+228.3 to Austindirectwhat Austin started himself385.6with conversionthe flips credited back512.9againstwhat the other side started284.7Alex's side+50.5that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way-123.5Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
Austin's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Darren Waller10.091.001.200.951.001.1012.6512151.8Lamar Jackson20.921.001.001.001.001.0020.9212251.0Rachaad White9.531.141.001.001.001.1011.9112142.9Isiah Pacheco10.591.120.801.001.000.908.5612102.7Side total648.4
Alex's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
DeAndre Hopkins14.241.001.201.001.001.0017.0912205.1Dallas Goedert8.821.001.201.051.000.9010.0012120.0Kenneth Walker15.461.000.801.051.001.1014.2912171.4Brock Purdy15.101.120.801.051.001.0014.2112170.5Side total667.0
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.
The season after
2023, before and after week 5 · the trade week marked · regular season
Austinfinished 10thBefore2-2102.5 a gameAfter5-5115.3 a game123456789101112131415ConsConsAlexfinished 5thBefore1-3109.3 a gameAfter6-4126.7 a game1234567891011121314QF5th17winlosstrade weekbye or out
The chain
the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
This deal · 2023 wk5Austin and Alex, 4 for 4385.6 direct to Austin
2023 wk10 · Austin to StephanRWRachaad White out, Patrick Mahomes, Austin Ekeler and San Francisco 49ers in257.2 for Austin · credit 74.22023 wk10 · Austin to StephanIPIsiah Pacheco out, Patrick Mahomes, Austin Ekeler and San Francisco 49ers in257.2 for Austin · credit 53.12023 wk10 · Alex to MikayelDGDallas Goedert out, David Njoku, Gabe Davis and Kyren Williams in431.6 for Alex · credit 0.02023 wk10 · Alex to CurtisKWKenneth Walker out, David Njoku, Gabe Davis and Kyren Williams in431.6 for Alex · credit 151.5
Rachaad White out, Patrick Mahomes, Austin Ekeler and San Francisco 49ers in257.2 for Austin · credit 74.22023 wk10 · Austin to StephanIPIsiah Pacheco out, Patrick Mahomes, Austin Ekeler and San Francisco 49ers in257.2 for Austin · credit 53.12023 wk10 · Alex to MikayelDGDallas Goedert out, David Njoku, Gabe Davis and Kyren Williams in431.6 for Alex · credit 0.02023 wk10 · Alex to CurtisKWKenneth Walker out, David Njoku, Gabe Davis and Kyren Williams in431.6 for Alex · credit 151.5nothing went further
The context
Trade in league history91 of 123
Austin's trades33 his side A, +228.3
Alex's trades45 his side B, +50.5
Blockbusternot in the list
Fleecenot in the list
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.