2023·Week 10
3 for 4 · C on paper, A in the books
On paper even, in the books Stephan, in the long run Stephan, and Goff started 8 weeks for him.
The deal
weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
Side total257.2257.2 direct
IP
Isiah PachecoRB16 weeks · 6 starts · 100.8 started, flipped 2024 wk9 to Caleb for Aaron Jones, George Kittle and Darnell Mooney, credit 0.0100.86 starts
Isiah PachecoRB16 weeks · 6 starts · 100.8 started, flipped 2024 wk9 to Caleb for Aaron Jones, George Kittle and Darnell Mooney, credit 0.0100.86 starts
Side total488.5488.5 direct
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
Two grades and the long run
on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2023 · the long run across tenures
On paperC/C5.7 to Austin, 0.71 a weekAustin's sideAustin Ekeler 224.3, Patrick Mahomes 170.9, San Francisco 49ers 64.7459.9Stephan's sideJared Goff 164.2, Rachaad White 103.0, Isiah Pacheco 94.0, DK Metcalf 93.0454.2Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksF/A+242.6 to Stephan, 30.33 a weekAustin's sidePatrick Mahomes 125.7, San Francisco 49ers 91.0, Austin Ekeler 83.0299.7Stephan's sideJared Goff 162.0, Rachaad White 140.9, DK Metcalf 140.0, Isiah Pacheco 99.4542.3What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runF/A+231.3 to Stephandirectwhat Stephan started himself488.5with conversionthe flips credited back488.5againstwhat the other side started257.2Austin's side-231.3that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way+199.4Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
Austin's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Patrick Mahomes23.251.001.001.051.001.0024.417170.9Austin Ekeler18.921.071.201.051.001.1028.038224.3San Francisco 49ers8.091.001.001.001.001.008.09864.7Side total459.9
Stephan's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Jared Goff18.541.111.001.001.001.0020.528164.2DK Metcalf12.921.001.001.001.000.9011.63893.0Rachaad White11.701.001.001.001.001.1012.878103.0Isiah Pacheco10.961.061.001.051.001.1013.43794.0Side total454.2
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.
The season after
2023, before and after week 10 · the trade week marked · regular season
Austinfinished 10thBefore4-5107.9 a gameAfter3-2118.4 a game123456789101112131415ConsConsStephanfinished 9thBefore2-7113.6 a gameAfter1-4125.7 a game1234567891011121314ConsConsConswinlosstrade weekbye or out
The chain
the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
This deal · 2023 wk10Austin and Stephan, 3 for 4488.5 direct to Stephan
nothing went further
The context
Trade in league history96 of 123
Austin's trades33 his worst
Stephan's trades27 his side A, +231.3
Blockbuster5th of 8 713.9 combined
Fleecenot in the list
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.