2022·Week 1
1 for 1 · C on paper, C in the books
On paper even, in the books even, in the long run Alex, because Harris became Hopkins.
The deal
weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
Side total0.00.0 direct
NH
Najee HarrisRB7 weeks · 5 starts · 63.2 started, flipped 2024 wk8 to Kappy for DeAndre Hopkins, credit 70.363.25 starts
Najee HarrisRB7 weeks · 5 starts · 63.2 started, flipped 2024 wk8 to Kappy for DeAndre Hopkins, credit 70.363.25 starts$11 FAAB
Side total63.263.2 direct · 133.5 with conversion
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
Two grades and the long run
on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2022 · the long run across tenures
On paperC/C33.8 to Austin, 1.99 a weekAustin's sideDeebo Samuel 316.8316.8Alex's sideNajee Harris 283.0283.0Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksC/C+45.5 to Alex, 2.67 a weekAustin's sideDeebo Samuel 163.0163.0Alex's sideNajee Harris 208.5208.5What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runD/B+133.5 to Alexdirectwhat Alex started himself63.2with conversionthe flips credited back133.5againstwhat the other side started0.0Austin's side-63.2that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way0.0Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
Austin's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Deebo Samuel19.801.001.001.001.001.0019.8016316.8Side total316.8
Alex's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Najee Harris17.691.001.001.001.001.0017.6916283.0Side total283.0
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.
The season after
2022, before and after week 1 · the trade week marked · regular season
Austinfinished 1st, championBefore—no games before itAfter11-3125.5 a game123456789101112131415SFFAlexfinished 4thBefore—no games before itAfter8-6120.4 a game1234567891011121314QFSF3rdwinlosstrade weekbye or out
The chain
the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
This deal · 2022 wk1Austin and Alex, 1 for 163.2 direct to Alex
nothing went further
The context
Trade in league history62 of 123
Austin's trades33 his side D, -63.2
Alex's trades45 his side B, +133.5
Blockbusternot in the list
Fleecenot in the list
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.