2023·Week 10
2 for 2 for 1 for 3 · F on paper, F in the books · a ring deal
In the long run Alex +150.4, then Curtis -443.8, then Sobi -546.0, then Mikayel -586.2. Mikayel won the title that year with Kelce in the lineup.
The deal
weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
Side total134.5134.5 direct
Side total83.483.4 direct
Side total63.363.3 direct
Side total431.6431.6 direct
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
Two grades and the long run
on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2023 · the long run across tenures
On paperF/F/F/F305.9 to Sobi, 38.24 a weekCurtis's sideDeAndre Hopkins 114.7, Calvin Ridley 113.2227.8Sobi's sideTank Dell 135.3, George Kittle 128.0263.3Mikayel's sideTravis Kelce 105.6105.6Alex's sideDavid Njoku 90.9, Gabe Davis 74.0, Kyren Williams 70.9235.8Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksF/F/F/F-131.3 to Alex, 16.41 a weekCurtis's sideCalvin Ridley 117.2, DeAndre Hopkins 97.1214.3Sobi's sideGeorge Kittle 110.7, Tank Dell 66.0176.7Mikayel's sideTravis Kelce 78.778.7Alex's sideKyren Williams 147.9, David Njoku 129.3, Gabe Davis 61.2338.4What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runF/F/F/A+150.4 to Alexdirectwhat Alex started himself431.6with conversionthe flips credited back431.6againstwhat the other side started281.2Curtis's side-443.8Sobi's side-546.0Mikayel's side-586.2that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way-29.4Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
Curtis's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
DeAndre Hopkins15.331.001.001.000.851.1014.338114.7Calvin Ridley12.321.061.201.001.000.9014.148113.2Side total227.8
Sobi's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
George Kittle12.541.101.001.051.001.1016.008128.0Tank Dell14.431.081.201.001.000.9016.918135.3Side total263.3
Mikayel's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Travis Kelce17.961.000.801.051.001.0015.097105.6Side total105.6
Alex's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
David Njoku9.231.121.001.001.001.1011.36890.9Gabe Davis11.191.001.001.051.000.9010.57774.0Kyren Williams11.251.001.001.001.000.9010.13770.9Side total235.8
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.
The season after
2023, before and after week 10 · the trade week marked · regular season
Curtisfinished 6thBefore5-4119.0 a gameAfter3-2117.0 a game1234567891011121314QF5th17Sobifinished 8thBefore4-5128.2 a gameAfter1-4100.6 a game1234567891011121314ConsConsConsMikayelfinished 1st, championBefore6-3126.0 a gameAfter4-1161.7 a game1234567891011121314QFSFFAlexfinished 5thBefore3-6114.0 a gameAfter4-1135.7 a game1234567891011121314QF5th17winlosstrade weekbye or out
The chain
the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
Nothing was flipped out of this deal.
The context
Trade in league history93 of 123
Curtis's trades27 his worst
Sobi's trades5 his worst
Mikayel's trades15 his worst
Alex's trades45 his side A, +150.4
Blockbusternot in the list
Fleecenot in the list
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.