2024·Week 4
2 for 3 · A on paper, A in the books
On paper Alex, in the books Alex, in the long run Alex, because McLaurin became Hill.
The deal
weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
Side total49.349.3 direct
TM
Terry McLaurinWR8 weeks · 8 starts · 125.4 started, flipped wk12 to Austin for Tyreek Hill, credit 9.8125.48 starts
Terry McLaurinWR8 weeks · 8 starts · 125.4 started, flipped wk12 to Austin for Tyreek Hill, credit 9.8125.48 starts
Side total328.2328.2 direct · 338.0 with conversion
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
Two grades and the long run
on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2024 · the long run across tenures
On paperF/A401.7 to Alex, 28.70 a weekCaleb's sideBrian Robinson 138.6, Chris Olave 114.7253.3Alex's sideJayden Daniels 321.5, Zack Moss 176.2, Terry McLaurin 157.4655.0Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksF/A+429.8 to Alex, 30.70 a weekCaleb's sideBrian Robinson 116.0, Chris Olave 41.2157.2Alex's sideJayden Daniels 326.9, Terry McLaurin 219.7, Zack Moss 40.4587.0What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runF/A+288.7 to Alexdirectwhat Alex started himself328.2with conversionthe flips credited back338.0againstwhat the other side started49.3Caleb's side-278.9that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way+278.9Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
Caleb's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Chris Olave13.731.000.801.050.850.908.8213114.7Brian Robinson13.281.060.801.051.000.9010.6613138.6Side total253.3
Alex's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Terry McLaurin12.121.061.001.051.000.9012.1113157.4Zack Moss11.801.091.001.051.001.0013.5513176.2Jayden Daniels23.551.001.001.051.001.0024.7313321.5Side total655.0
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.
The season after
2024, before and after week 4 · the trade week marked · regular season
CalebBefore2-1130.8 a gameAfter7-4140.9 a game1234567891011121314QFSF3rdAlexBefore1-2111.4 a gameAfter6-5124.1 a game123456789101112131415ConsConswinlosstrade weekbye or out
The chain
the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
This deal · 2024 wk4Caleb and Alex, 2 for 3328.2 direct to Alex
nothing went further
The context
Trade in league history101 of 123
Caleb's trades24 his worst
Alex's trades45 his best
Blockbusternot in the list
Fleece4th of 8 278.9 margin
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.