2024·Week 12
2 for 2 · A on paper, A in the books
On paper Curtis, in the books Curtis, in the long run Curtis, and Williams started 20 weeks for him.
The deal
weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
Side total398.2398.2 direct
Side total94.794.7 direct
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
Two grades and the long run
on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2024 · the long run across tenures
On paperA/F78.0 to Curtis, 12.99 a weekCurtis's sideKyren Williams 117.7, Tyreek Hill 90.9208.5Alex's sideBijan Robinson 94.1, DeMario Douglas 36.5130.6Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksA/F+74.2 to Curtis, 12.37 a weekCurtis's sideKyren Williams 104.5, Tyreek Hill 97.2201.7Alex's sideBijan Robinson 110.2, DeMario Douglas 17.3127.5What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runA/F+303.5 to Curtisdirectwhat Curtis started himself398.2with conversionthe flips credited back398.2againstwhat the other side started94.7Alex's side-303.5that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way+50.3Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
Curtis's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Tyreek Hill15.941.001.000.951.001.0015.14690.9Kyren Williams17.831.001.001.001.001.1019.616117.7Side total208.5
Alex's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
DeMario Douglas8.531.001.000.951.000.907.29536.5Bijan Robinson17.111.001.001.001.001.1018.82594.1Side total130.6
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.
The season after
2024, before and after week 12 · the trade week marked · regular season
CurtisBefore4-7105.7 a gameAfter1-2124.6 a game1234567891011121314ConsCons17AlexBefore4-7118.4 a gameAfter3-0132.4 a game123456789101112131415ConsConswinlosstrade weekbye or out
The chain
the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
Nothing was flipped out of this deal.
The context
Trade in league history106 of 123
Curtis's trades27 his side A, +303.5
Alex's trades45 his side F, -303.5
Blockbusternot in the list
Fleecenot in the list
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.