2023·Week 10
1 for 2 · C on paper, B in the books
On paper even, in the books Alex, in the long run Alex, because Aiyuk became Olave.
The deal
weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
Side total58.558.5 direct
BA
Brandon AiyukWR8 weeks · 8 starts · 118.1 started, flipped 2024 wk2 to Stephan for Chris Olave, credit 65.3118.18 starts
Brandon AiyukWR8 weeks · 8 starts · 118.1 started, flipped 2024 wk2 to Stephan for Chris Olave, credit 65.3118.18 starts
Side total118.1118.1 direct · 183.4 with conversion
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
Two grades and the long run
on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2023 · the long run across tenures
On paperC/C9.2 to Alex, 1.16 a weekCurtis's sideKenneth Walker 148.8148.8Alex's sideBrandon Aiyuk 111.1, Miles Sanders 47.0158.0Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksD/B+76.7 to Alex, 9.59 a weekCurtis's sideKenneth Walker 74.074.0Alex's sideBrandon Aiyuk 138.7, Miles Sanders 12.0150.7What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runD/B+125.0 to Alexdirectwhat Alex started himself118.1with conversionthe flips credited back183.4againstwhat the other side started58.5Curtis's side-59.6that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way+54.8Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
Curtis's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Kenneth Walker14.091.001.201.001.001.1018.608148.8Side total148.8
Alex's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Miles Sanders9.970.860.800.951.000.905.87847.0Brandon Aiyuk14.691.001.001.051.000.9013.888111.1Side total158.0
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.
The season after
2023, before and after week 10 · the trade week marked · regular season
Curtisfinished 6thBefore5-4119.0 a gameAfter3-2117.0 a game1234567891011121314QF5thAlexfinished 5thBefore3-6114.0 a gameAfter4-1135.7 a game1234567891011121314QF5thwinlosstrade weekbye or out
The chain
the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
This deal · 2023 wk10Curtis and Alex, 1 for 2118.1 direct to Alex
The context
Trade in league history95 of 123
Curtis's trades27 his side D, -59.6
Alex's trades45 his side B, +125.0
Blockbusternot in the list
Fleecenot in the list
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.