2024·Week 2
1 for 2 · C on paper, C in the books
On paper even, in the books even, in the long run Curtis, because Robinson became Williams and Hill.
The deal
weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
BR
Bijan RobinsonRB10 weeks · 10 starts · 187.1 started, flipped wk12 to Alex for Tyreek Hill and Kyren Williams, credit 398.2187.110 starts
Bijan RobinsonRB10 weeks · 10 starts · 187.1 started, flipped wk12 to Alex for Tyreek Hill and Kyren Williams, credit 398.2187.110 startsSide total187.1187.1 direct · 585.3 with conversion
$30 FAAB
Side total211.1211.1 direct
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
Two grades and the long run
on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2024 · the long run across tenures
On paperC/C20.2 to Curtis, 1.26 a weekCurtis's sideBijan Robinson 185.3185.3Alex's sideA.J. Brown 165.2, Christian McCaffrey 0.0165.2Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksC/C+51.5 to Curtis, 3.22 a weekCurtis's sideBijan Robinson 297.3297.3Alex's sideA.J. Brown 198.0, Christian McCaffrey 47.8245.8What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runA/C+374.2 to Curtisdirectwhat Curtis started himself187.1with conversionthe flips credited back585.3againstwhat the other side started211.1Alex's side+24.0that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way-24.0Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
Curtis's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Bijan Robinson14.821.100.800.951.001.0012.3615185.3Side total185.3
Alex's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Christian McCaffrey23.951.001.001.051.000.9022.6300.0A.J. Brown17.991.000.801.000.850.9011.0115165.2Side total165.2
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.
The season after
2024, before and after week 2 · the trade week marked · regular season
CurtisBefore0-198.7 a gameAfter5-8110.6 a game1234567891011121314ConsCons17AlexBefore0-1110.1 a gameAfter7-6122.3 a game123456789101112131415ConsConswinlosstrade weekbye or out
The chain
the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
This deal · 2024 wk2Curtis and Alex, 1 for 2187.1 direct to Curtis
nothing went further
The context
Trade in league history100 of 123
Curtis's trades27 his side A, +374.2
Alex's trades45 his side C, +24.0
Blockbusternot in the list
Fleecenot in the list
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.