On paper even, in the books even, in the long run Stephan, because Ekeler and Davis became Kirk and Goff.
The deal
weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
AE
Austin EkelerRB23 weeks · 18 starts · 404.6 started, flipped 2023 wk10 to Austin for Jared Goff, DK Metcalf, Rachaad White and Isiah Pacheco, credit 142.8404.618 starts
Austin EkelerRB23 weeks · 18 starts · 404.6 started, flipped 2023 wk10 to Austin for Jared Goff, DK Metcalf, Rachaad White and Isiah Pacheco, credit 142.8404.618 starts
GD
Gabe DavisWR7 weeks · 4 starts · 33.9 started, flipped wk10 to Alex for Christian Kirk and Brian Robinson, credit 74.633.94 starts
Gabe DavisWR7 weeks · 4 starts · 33.9 started, flipped wk10 to Alex for Christian Kirk and Brian Robinson, credit 74.633.94 starts
Side total620.0620.0 direct · 837.4 with conversion
$23 FAAB
Side total192.2192.2 direct
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
Two grades and the long run
on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2022 · the long run across tenures
On paperC/C85.2 to Stephan, 5.33 a weekStephan's sideAustin Ekeler 362.1, James Robinson 214.1, Mike Williams 121.3, Gabe Davis 108.8806.3Alex's sideNick Chubb 206.2, Leonard Fournette 192.9, Adam Thielen 188.1, Rashod Bateman 134.0721.1Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksC/C+73.7 to Stephan, 4.61 a weekStephan's sideAustin Ekeler 350.5, Mike Williams 166.3, Gabe Davis 145.9, James Robinson 66.7729.4Alex's sideNick Chubb 242.9, Leonard Fournette 209.0, Adam Thielen 164.2, Rashod Bateman 39.6655.7What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runA/F+645.2 to Stephandirectwhat Stephan started himself620.0with conversionthe flips credited back837.4againstwhat the other side started192.2Alex's side-427.8that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way+289.1Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
Stephan's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Mike Williams12.320.910.801.001.000.908.0915121.3Austin Ekeler18.291.001.201.001.001.1024.1415362.1Gabe Davis9.901.140.801.050.850.907.2515108.8James Robinson14.271.001.001.001.001.0014.2715214.1Side total806.3
Alex's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Adam Thielen14.090.941.001.051.000.9012.5415188.1Leonard Fournette17.191.000.801.000.851.1012.8615192.9Nick Chubb15.271.001.001.001.000.9013.7415206.2Rashod Bateman9.381.061.001.001.000.908.9315134.0Side total721.1
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.
The season after
2022, before and after week 2 · the trade week marked · regular season
Stephanfinished 3rdBefore0-1119.8 a gameAfter9-4128.6 a game123456789101112131415SF3rd
Alexfinished 4thBefore0-1109.6 a gameAfter8-5121.2 a game1234567891011121314QFSF3rdwinlosstrade weekbye or out
The chain
the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
This deal · 2022 wk2Stephan and Alex, 4 for 4620.0 direct to Stephan
The context
Trade in league history64 of 123
Stephan's trades27 his best
Alex's trades45 his side F, -427.8
Blockbuster6th of 8 673.5 combined
Fleece2nd of 8 289.1 margin
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.