The deal
weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
$23 FAAB
Side total71.771.7 direct
Side total43.743.7 direct
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
Two grades and the long run
on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2022 · the long run across tenures
On paperC/C85.2 to Alex, 5.33 a weekStephan's sideNick Chubb 206.2, Leonard Fournette 192.9, Adam Thielen 188.1, Rashod Bateman 134.0721.1Alex's sideAustin Ekeler 362.1, James Robinson 214.1, Mike Williams 121.3, Gabe Davis 108.8806.3Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksC/C+73.7 to Alex, 4.61 a weekStephan's sideNick Chubb 242.9, Leonard Fournette 209.0, Adam Thielen 164.2, Rashod Bateman 39.6655.7Alex's sideAustin Ekeler 350.5, Mike Williams 166.3, Gabe Davis 145.9, James Robinson 66.7729.4What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runC/C+28.0 to Stephandirectwhat Stephan started himself71.7with conversionthe flips credited back71.7againstwhat the other side started43.7Alex's side-28.0that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way-12.9Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
Stephan's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Adam Thielen14.090.941.001.051.000.9012.5415188.1Leonard Fournette17.191.000.801.000.851.1012.8615192.9Nick Chubb15.271.001.001.001.000.9013.7415206.2Rashod Bateman9.381.061.001.001.000.908.9315134.0Side total721.1
Alex's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Mike Williams12.320.910.801.001.000.908.0915121.3Austin Ekeler18.291.001.201.001.001.1024.1415362.1Gabe Davis9.901.140.801.050.850.907.2515108.8James Robinson14.271.001.001.001.001.0014.2715214.1Side total806.3
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.
The season after
2022, before and after week 2 · the trade week marked · regular season
Stephanfinished 3rdBefore0-1119.8 a gameAfter9-4128.6 a game123456789101112131415SF3rd
Alexfinished 4thBefore0-1109.6 a gameAfter8-5121.2 a game1234567891011121314QFSF3rdwinlosstrade weekbye or out
The chain
the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
Nothing was flipped out of this deal.
The context
Trade in league history66 of 123
Stephan's trades27 his side C, +28.0
Alex's trades45 his side C, -28.0
Blockbusternot in the list
Fleecenot in the list
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.