2021·Week 5
3 for 2 · B on paper, B in the books · a ring deal
On paper Alex, in the books Alex, in the long run David M, and Chubb started 8 weeks for him. He won the title that year with Chubb in the lineup.
The deal
weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
AB
Antonio BrownWR1 week · 1 start · 24.3 started, flipped wk7 to Kappy for Tony Pollard and Antonio Gibson, credit 16.224.31 start
Antonio BrownWR1 week · 1 start · 24.3 started, flipped wk7 to Kappy for Tony Pollard and Antonio Gibson, credit 16.224.31 startCP
Cordarrelle PattersonRB0 weeks · 0 starts · 0.0 started, flipped wk6 to Jeff for Alvin Kamara, Chris Carson and Hunter Renfrow, credit 141.40.0never started
Cordarrelle PattersonRB0 weeks · 0 starts · 0.0 started, flipped wk6 to Jeff for Alvin Kamara, Chris Carson and Hunter Renfrow, credit 141.40.0never startedJJ
Josh JacobsRB0 weeks · 0 starts · 0.0 started, flipped wk6 to Ryan for Khalil Herbert, credit 0.00.0never started
Josh JacobsRB0 weeks · 0 starts · 0.0 started, flipped wk6 to Ryan for Khalil Herbert, credit 0.00.0never startedSide total24.324.3 direct · 181.8 with conversion
Side total157.0157.0 direct
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
Two grades and the long run
on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2021 · the long run across tenures
On paperB/D125.8 to Alex, 9.67 a weekAlex's sideAntonio Brown 171.5, Josh Jacobs 137.2, Cordarrelle Patterson 129.1437.8David M's sideNick Chubb 170.5, Marvin Jones 141.5312.0Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksB/D+152.2 to Alex, 11.71 a weekAlex's sideJosh Jacobs 175.9, Cordarrelle Patterson 149.0, Antonio Brown 81.4406.3David M's sideNick Chubb 149.5, Marvin Jones 104.6254.1What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runC/B+132.7 to David Mdirectwhat David M started himself157.0with conversionthe flips credited back157.0againstwhat the other side started24.3Alex's side+24.9that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way+132.7Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
Alex's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Antonio Brown15.121.001.001.051.000.9014.2912171.5Cordarrelle Patterson10.941.151.000.951.000.9010.7612129.1Josh Jacobs14.951.001.001.000.850.9011.4412137.2Side total437.8
David M's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Marvin Jones13.791.001.000.951.000.9011.7912141.5Nick Chubb15.791.001.001.001.000.9014.2112170.5Side total312.0
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.
The season after
2021, before and after week 5 · the trade week marked · regular season
Alexfinished 5thBefore2-2148.2 a gameAfter6-4115.7 a game1234567891011121314QF5th17David Mfinished 1st, championBefore1-3114.4 a gameAfter8-2155.6 a game1234567891011121314QFSFFwinlosstrade weekbye or out
The chain
the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
This deal · 2021 wk5Alex and David M, 3 for 2157.0 direct to David M
2021 wk7 · Alex to KappyABAntonio Brown out, Tony Pollard and Antonio Gibson in105.6 for Alex · credit 16.22021 wk6 · Alex to JeffCPCordarrelle Patterson out, Alvin Kamara, Chris Carson and Hunter Renfrow in115.4 for Alex · credit 141.42021 wk6 · Alex to RyanJJJosh Jacobs out, Khalil Herbert in19.2 for Alex · credit 0.0
Antonio Brown out, Tony Pollard and Antonio Gibson in105.6 for Alex · credit 16.22021 wk6 · Alex to JeffCPCordarrelle Patterson out, Alvin Kamara, Chris Carson and Hunter Renfrow in115.4 for Alex · credit 141.42021 wk6 · Alex to RyanJJJosh Jacobs out, Khalil Herbert in19.2 for Alex · credit 0.0
The context
Trade in league history40 of 123
Alex's trades45 his side C, +24.9
David M's trades12 his side B, +132.7
Blockbusternot in the list
Fleecenot in the list
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.