2021·Week 7
3 for 2 · C on paper, C in the books
On paper even, in the books even, in the long run Kappy, and Montgomery started 7 weeks for him.
The deal
weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
$10 FAAB
Side total167.8167.8 direct
Side total105.6105.6 direct
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
Two grades and the long run
on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2021 · the long run across tenures
On paperC/C8.7 to Kappy, 0.79 a weekKappy's sideAntonio Brown 161.7, Khalil Herbert 53.9, David Montgomery 0.0215.6Alex's sideAntonio Gibson 117.6, Tony Pollard 89.2206.8Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksC/C+18.5 to Alex, 1.68 a weekKappy's sideDavid Montgomery 126.3, Khalil Herbert 50.4, Antonio Brown 25.7202.4Alex's sideAntonio Gibson 127.4, Tony Pollard 93.5220.9What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runB/D+62.2 to Kappydirectwhat Kappy started himself167.8with conversionthe flips credited back167.8againstwhat the other side started105.6Alex's side-62.2that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way+62.2Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
Kappy's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Antonio Brown17.441.091.001.051.000.9017.969161.7David Montgomery15.851.001.000.951.000.9013.5500.0Khalil Herbert5.481.151.000.951.000.905.391053.9Side total215.6
Alex's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Tony Pollard9.441.001.001.051.000.908.921089.2Antonio Gibson13.850.931.201.000.850.9011.7610117.6Side total206.8
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.
The season after
2021, before and after week 7 · the trade week marked · regular season
Kappyfinished 4thBefore5-1147.0 a gameAfter5-3121.2 a game123456789101112131415SF3rdAlexfinished 5thBefore3-3148.5 a gameAfter5-3107.3 a game1234567891011121314QF5th17winlosstrade weekbye or out
The chain
the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
Nothing was flipped out of this deal.
The context
Trade in league history50 of 123
Kappy's trades9 his side B, +62.2
Alex's trades45 his side D, -62.2
Blockbusternot in the list
Fleecenot in the list
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.