2020·Week 2
2 for 1 · B on paper, B in the books
On paper Stephan, in the books Stephan, in the long run Caleb, because Gordon became Kamara.
The deal
weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
WF
William FullerWR7 weeks · 3 starts · 36.8 started, flipped wk9 to Caleb for Alvin Kamara, Christian Kirk, George Kittle and Kenny Golladay, credit 43.136.83 starts
William FullerWR7 weeks · 3 starts · 36.8 started, flipped wk9 to Caleb for Alvin Kamara, Christian Kirk, George Kittle and Kenny Golladay, credit 43.136.83 startsLF
Leonard FournetteRB1 week · 0 starts · 0.0 started, flipped wk3 to Curtis for Kenyan Drake, credit 18.50.0never started
Leonard FournetteRB1 week · 0 starts · 0.0 started, flipped wk3 to Curtis for Kenyan Drake, credit 18.50.0never startedSide total36.836.8 direct · 98.5 with conversion
MG
Melvin GordonRB3 weeks · 3 starts · 50.0 started, flipped wk5 to Derek Smith for John Brown and Alvin Kamara, credit 119.550.03 starts
Melvin GordonRB3 weeks · 3 starts · 50.0 started, flipped wk5 to Derek Smith for John Brown and Alvin Kamara, credit 119.550.03 startsSide total50.050.0 direct · 169.5 with conversion
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
Two grades and the long run
on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2020 · the long run across tenures
On paperB/D149.6 to Stephan, 9.97 a weekStephan's sideWilliam Fuller 180.0, Leonard Fournette 160.5340.5Caleb's sideMelvin Gordon 190.9190.9Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksB/D+140.2 to Stephan, 9.35 a weekStephan's sideWilliam Fuller 169.7, Leonard Fournette 124.4294.1Caleb's sideMelvin Gordon 153.9153.9What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runC/B+132.7 to Calebdirectwhat Caleb started himself50.0with conversionthe flips credited back169.5againstwhat the other side started36.8Stephan's side+48.5that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way+13.2Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
Stephan's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
William Fuller12.881.111.001.001.000.9012.8614180.0Leonard Fournette14.990.851.001.001.000.9011.4714160.5Side total340.5
Caleb's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Melvin Gordon15.951.001.000.951.000.9013.6414190.9Side total190.9
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.
The season after
2020, before and after week 2 · the trade week marked · regular season
Stephanfinished 9thBefore0-1137.6 a gameAfter5-7120.4 a game1234567891011121314ConsConsCalebfinished 7thBefore0-1104.3 a gameAfter3-9122.0 a game12345678910111213ConsConsConswinlosstrade weekbye or out
The chain
the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
This deal · 2020 wk2Stephan and Caleb, 2 for 150.0 direct to Caleb
2020 wk9 · Stephan to CalebWFWilliam Fuller out, Alvin Kamara, Christian Kirk, George Kittle and Kenny Golladay in182.6 for Stephan · credit 43.12020 wk3 · Stephan to CurtisLFLeonard Fournette out, Kenyan Drake in12.4 for Stephan · credit 18.52020 wk5 · Caleb to Derek SmithMGMelvin Gordon out, John Brown and Alvin Kamara in68.0 for Caleb · credit 119.5
William Fuller out, Alvin Kamara, Christian Kirk, George Kittle and Kenny Golladay in182.6 for Stephan · credit 43.12020 wk3 · Stephan to CurtisLFLeonard Fournette out, Kenyan Drake in12.4 for Stephan · credit 18.52020 wk5 · Caleb to Derek SmithMGMelvin Gordon out, John Brown and Alvin Kamara in68.0 for Caleb · credit 119.5
The context
Trade in league history16 of 123
Stephan's trades27 his side C, +48.5
Caleb's trades24 his side B, +132.7
Blockbusternot in the list
Fleecenot in the list
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.