2020·Week 5
3 for 2 · C on paper, C in the books
On paper even, in the books even, in the long run Derek Smith, and Jones started 5 weeks for him.
The deal
weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
Side total206.6206.6 direct
AK
Alvin KamaraRB3 weeks · 3 starts · 68.0 started, flipped wk9 to Stephan for Mark Andrews, Chris Carson, Amari Cooper and Will Fuller V, credit 227.368.03 starts
Alvin KamaraRB3 weeks · 3 starts · 68.0 started, flipped wk9 to Stephan for Mark Andrews, Chris Carson, Amari Cooper and Will Fuller V, credit 227.368.03 starts
Side total68.068.0 direct · 295.3 with conversion
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
Two grades and the long run
on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2020 · the long run across tenures
On paperC/C22.3 to Derek Smith, 1.86 a weekDerek Smith's sideMelvin Gordon 152.0, Julio Jones 120.8, Jerick McKinnon 112.9385.7Caleb's sideAlvin Kamara 261.7, John Brown 101.7363.4Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksC/C+18.7 to Caleb, 1.56 a weekDerek Smith's sideJulio Jones 109.8, Melvin Gordon 103.9, Jerick McKinnon 51.9265.6Caleb's sideAlvin Kamara 250.1, John Brown 34.2284.3What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runB/B+138.6 to Derek Smithdirectwhat Derek Smith started himself206.6with conversionthe flips credited back206.6againstwhat the other side started68.0Caleb's side+88.7that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way+138.6Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
Derek Smith's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Jerick McKinnon14.261.000.801.001.000.9010.2711112.9Melvin Gordon16.161.001.000.951.000.9013.8211152.0Julio Jones15.970.901.001.000.850.9010.9811120.8Side total385.7
Caleb's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
John Brown12.470.921.001.050.850.909.2511101.7Alvin Kamara23.791.001.001.001.001.0023.7911261.7Side total363.4
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.
The season after
2020, before and after week 5 · the trade week marked · regular season
Derek Smithfinished 12thBefore2-2124.4 a gameAfter3-6105.9 a game12345678910111213ConsCons16Calebfinished 7thBefore1-3123.4 a gameAfter2-7119.4 a game12345678910111213ConsConsCons
Calebfinished 7thBefore1-3123.4 a gameAfter2-7119.4 a game12345678910111213ConsConsConswinlosstrade weekbye or out
The chain
the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
This deal · 2020 wk5Derek Smith and Caleb, 3 for 2206.6 direct to Derek Smith
nothing went further
The context
Trade in league history20 of 123
Derek Smith's trades2 his best
Caleb's trades24 his side B, +88.7
Blockbusternot in the list
Fleecenot in the list
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.