2020·Week 3
1 for 1 · C on paper, C in the books
On paper even, in the books even, in the long run even.
The deal
weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
KD
Kenyan DrakeRB2 weeks · 2 starts · 12.4 started, flipped wk5 to Austin for Latavius Murray, credit 6.112.42 starts
Kenyan DrakeRB2 weeks · 2 starts · 12.4 started, flipped wk5 to Austin for Latavius Murray, credit 6.112.42 startsSide total12.412.4 direct · 18.5 with conversion
Side total28.928.9 direct
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
Two grades and the long run
on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2020 · the long run across tenures
On paperC/C47.2 to Stephan, 3.37 a weekStephan's sideKenyan Drake 180.3180.3Curtis's sideLeonard Fournette 133.1133.1Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksC/C+48.3 to Stephan, 3.45 a weekStephan's sideKenyan Drake 145.1145.1Curtis's sideLeonard Fournette 96.896.8What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runC/C+16.5 to Curtisdirectwhat Curtis started himself28.9with conversionthe flips credited back28.9againstwhat the other side started12.4Stephan's side-10.4that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way+16.5Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
Stephan's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Kenyan Drake13.871.001.001.001.001.0013.8713180.3Side total180.3
Curtis's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Leonard Fournette16.570.860.801.001.000.9010.2413133.1Side total133.1
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.
The season after
2020, before and after week 3 · the trade week marked · regular season
Stephanfinished 9thBefore0-2131.3 a gameAfter5-6120.0 a game1234567891011121314ConsConsCurtisfinished 5thBefore2-0137.1 a gameAfter6-5125.1 a game12345678910111213QF5th16winlosstrade weekbye or out
The chain
the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
This deal · 2020 wk3Stephan and Curtis, 1 for 128.9 direct to Curtis
nothing went further
The context
Trade in league history17 of 123
Stephan's trades27 his side C, -10.4
Curtis's trades27 his side C, +16.5
Blockbusternot in the list
Fleecenot in the list
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.