2022·Week 3
5 for 3 · B on paper, C in the books · a ring deal
On paper Greg, in the books even, in the long run Austin, because Burrow and Chase became Hill and Hurts. He won the title that year with Hill in the lineup.
The deal
weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
Side total318.0318.0 direct
JB
Joe BurrowQB2 weeks · 2 starts · 43.1 started, flipped wk5 to Alex for Derrick Henry, Tyreek Hill, Jeff Wilson, Jalen Hurts and Amon-Ra St. Brown, credit 355.743.12 starts
Joe BurrowQB2 weeks · 2 starts · 43.1 started, flipped wk5 to Alex for Derrick Henry, Tyreek Hill, Jeff Wilson, Jalen Hurts and Amon-Ra St. Brown, credit 355.743.12 startsJC
Ja'Marr ChaseWR2 weeks · 2 starts · 24.8 started, flipped wk5 to Alex for Derrick Henry, Tyreek Hill, Jeff Wilson, Jalen Hurts and Amon-Ra St. Brown, credit 315.824.82 starts
Ja'Marr ChaseWR2 weeks · 2 starts · 24.8 started, flipped wk5 to Alex for Derrick Henry, Tyreek Hill, Jeff Wilson, Jalen Hurts and Amon-Ra St. Brown, credit 315.824.82 starts
Side total67.967.9 direct · 739.4 with conversion
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
Two grades and the long run
on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2022 · the long run across tenures
On paperB/D161.1 to Greg, 10.74 a weekGreg's sideKyler Murray 310.8, Darren Waller 205.7, JuJu Smith-Schuster 140.5, Greg Dortch 99.5, Noah Brown 74.2830.7Austin's sideJoe Burrow 356.7, Ja'Marr Chase 231.8, Mike Gesicki 81.1669.7Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksC/C+85.8 to Austin, 5.72 a weekGreg's sideJuJu Smith-Schuster 163.9, Kyler Murray 146.0, Darren Waller 50.4, Noah Brown 31.0, Greg Dortch 18.6409.9Austin's sideJoe Burrow 307.6, Ja'Marr Chase 180.1, Mike Gesicki 8.0495.7What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runA/A+421.4 to Austindirectwhat Austin started himself67.9with conversionthe flips credited back739.4againstwhat the other side started318.0Greg's side+250.1that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way-250.1Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
Greg's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Darren Waller13.361.001.001.001.001.1014.7014205.7JuJu Smith-Schuster8.851.001.201.051.000.9010.0414140.5Noah Brown6.741.150.800.951.000.905.301474.2Kyler Murray22.201.001.001.001.001.0022.2014310.8Greg Dortch5.721.151.201.001.000.907.101499.5Side total830.7
Austin's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Mike Gesicki8.800.870.801.051.000.905.791481.1Joe Burrow19.181.111.201.001.001.0025.4814356.7Ja'Marr Chase18.401.001.001.001.000.9016.5614231.8Side total669.7
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.
The season after
2022, before and after week 3 · the trade week marked · regular season
Gregfinished 11thBefore0-285.0 a gameAfter4-899.0 a game1234567891011121314ConsCons17Austinfinished 1st, championBefore1-1125.8 a gameAfter10-2125.4 a game123456789101112131415SFFwinlosstrade weekbye or out
The chain
the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
This deal · 2022 wk3Greg and Austin, 5 for 367.9 direct to Austin
2022 wk5 · Austin to AlexJBJoe Burrow out, Derrick Henry, Tyreek Hill, Jeff Wilson, Jalen Hurts and Amon-Ra St. Brown in670.8 for Austin · credit 355.72022 wk5 · Austin to AlexJCJa'Marr Chase out, Derrick Henry, Tyreek Hill, Jeff Wilson, Jalen Hurts and Amon-Ra St. Brown in670.8 for Austin · credit 315.8
Joe Burrow out, Derrick Henry, Tyreek Hill, Jeff Wilson, Jalen Hurts and Amon-Ra St. Brown in670.8 for Austin · credit 355.72022 wk5 · Austin to AlexJCJa'Marr Chase out, Derrick Henry, Tyreek Hill, Jeff Wilson, Jalen Hurts and Amon-Ra St. Brown in670.8 for Austin · credit 315.8
The context
Trade in league history71 of 123
Greg's trades9 his best
Austin's trades33 his side A, +421.4
Blockbusternot in the list
Fleece7th of 8 250.1 margin
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.