2025·Week 1
3 for 2 · A on paper, A in the books
On paper Caleb, in the books Caleb, in the long run Caleb, because Higgins and Pollard became Dobbins and Harrison.
The deal
weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
TP
Tony PollardRB4 weeks · 4 starts · 41.6 started, flipped wk5 to Alex for Nick Chubb and Marvin Harrison, credit 18.641.64 starts
Tony PollardRB4 weeks · 4 starts · 41.6 started, flipped wk5 to Alex for Nick Chubb and Marvin Harrison, credit 18.641.64 startsTH
Tee HigginsWR6 weeks · 3 starts · 23.4 started, flipped wk7 to Ryan for J.K. Dobbins, credit 40.423.43 starts
Tee HigginsWR6 weeks · 3 starts · 23.4 started, flipped wk7 to Ryan for J.K. Dobbins, credit 40.423.43 startsSide total219.6219.6 direct · 278.6 with conversion
JJ
Justin JeffersonWR5 weeks · 5 starts · 82.3 started, flipped wk6 to Caleb for Breece Hall and Tyjae Spears, credit 77.382.35 starts
Justin JeffersonWR5 weeks · 5 starts · 82.3 started, flipped wk6 to Caleb for Breece Hall and Tyjae Spears, credit 77.382.35 startsSide total195.1195.1 direct · 272.4 with conversion
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
Two grades and the long run
on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2025 · the long run across tenures
On paperA/F258.4 to Caleb, 15.20 a weekCaleb's sideTee Higgins 278.7, George Kittle 243.7, Tony Pollard 195.2717.6Frank's sideJustin Jefferson 305.8, T.J. Hockenson 153.4459.2Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksA/F+228.9 to Caleb, 13.46 a weekCaleb's sideTee Higgins 193.9, Tony Pollard 178.3, George Kittle 154.6526.8Frank's sideJustin Jefferson 185.1, T.J. Hockenson 112.8297.9What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runB/B+83.5 to Calebdirectwhat Caleb started himself219.6with conversionthe flips credited back278.6againstwhat the other side started195.1Frank's side+52.8that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way+24.5Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
Caleb's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
George Kittle15.231.001.001.001.001.0015.2316243.7Tony Pollard12.201.001.001.001.001.0012.2016195.2Tee Higgins17.421.001.001.001.001.0017.4216278.7Side total717.6
Frank's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
T.J. Hockenson9.591.001.001.001.001.009.5916153.4Justin Jefferson19.111.001.001.001.001.0019.1116305.8Side total459.2
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.
The season after
2025, before and after week 1 · the trade week marked · regular season
Calebfinished 8thBefore—no games before itAfter4-10118.0 a game1234567891011121314ConsConsConsFrankfinished 11thBefore—no games before itAfter6-899.1 a game1234567891011121314ConsCons17winlosstrade weekbye or out
The chain
the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
This deal · 2025 wk1Caleb and Frank, 3 for 2219.6 direct to Caleb
2025 wk5 · Caleb to AlexTPTony Pollard out, Nick Chubb and Marvin Harrison in26.8 for Caleb · credit 18.62025 wk7 · Caleb to RyanTHTee Higgins out, J.K. Dobbins in40.4 for Caleb · credit 40.42025 wk6 · Frank to CalebJJJustin Jefferson out, Breece Hall and Tyjae Spears in182.8 for Frank · credit 77.3
Tony Pollard out, Nick Chubb and Marvin Harrison in26.8 for Caleb · credit 18.62025 wk7 · Caleb to RyanTHTee Higgins out, J.K. Dobbins in40.4 for Caleb · credit 40.42025 wk6 · Frank to CalebJJJustin Jefferson out, Breece Hall and Tyjae Spears in182.8 for Frank · credit 77.3nothing went further
The context
Trade in league history110 of 123
Caleb's trades24 his side B, +83.5
Frank's trades3 his side B, +52.8
Blockbusternot in the list
Fleecenot in the list
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.