2023·Week 5
2 for 2 · B on paper, C in the books
On paper Austin, in the books even, in the long run David M, and Wilson started 24 weeks for him.
The deal
weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
JG
Jared GoffQB5 weeks · 4 starts · 79.9 started, flipped wk10 to Stephan for Patrick Mahomes, Austin Ekeler and San Francisco 49ers, credit 85.379.94 starts
Jared GoffQB5 weeks · 4 starts · 79.9 started, flipped wk10 to Stephan for Patrick Mahomes, Austin Ekeler and San Francisco 49ers, credit 85.379.94 startsSide total436.2436.2 direct · 521.5 with conversion
Side total570.6570.6 direct
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
Two grades and the long run
on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2023 · the long run across tenures
On paperB/D86.2 to Austin, 6.63 a weekAustin's sidePuka Nacua 266.0, Jared Goff 213.1479.1David M's sideLamar Jackson 251.0, Garrett Wilson 141.8392.9Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksC/C+1.9 to David M, 0.15 a weekAustin's sideJared Goff 241.9, Puka Nacua 191.9433.8David M's sideLamar Jackson 281.5, Garrett Wilson 154.3435.8What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runC/B+134.4 to David Mdirectwhat David M started himself570.6with conversionthe flips credited back570.6againstwhat the other side started436.2Austin's side-49.1that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way+79.9Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
Austin's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Jared Goff17.761.001.001.001.001.0017.7612213.1Puka Nacua24.631.001.001.001.000.9022.1712266.0Side total479.1
David M's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Lamar Jackson20.921.001.001.001.001.0020.9212251.0Garrett Wilson13.131.051.000.951.000.9011.8212141.8Side total392.9
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.
The season after
2023, before and after week 5 · the trade week marked · regular season
Austinfinished 10thBefore2-2102.5 a gameAfter5-5115.3 a game123456789101112131415ConsConsDavid Mfinished 11thBefore1-3129.8 a gameAfter4-6121.7 a game1234567891011121314ConsCons17winlosstrade weekbye or out
The chain
the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
This deal · 2023 wk5Austin and David M, 2 for 2570.6 direct to David M
nothing went further
The context
Trade in league history90 of 123
Austin's trades33 his side C, -49.1
David M's trades12 his side B, +134.4
Blockbusternot in the list
Fleecenot in the list
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.