2021·Week 6
3 for 3 for 2 · D on paper, C in the books · a ring deal
In the long run Austin +413.8, then Curtis -60.6, then Ryan -324.0. He won the 2022 title with Hill in the lineup.
The deal
weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
Side total32.732.7 direct
JJ
Josh JacobsRB1 week · 1 start · 15.8 started, flipped wk8 to Caleb for Damien Harris and Diontae Johnson, credit 56.515.81 start
Josh JacobsRB1 week · 1 start · 15.8 started, flipped wk8 to Caleb for Damien Harris and Diontae Johnson, credit 56.515.81 startSD
Stefon DiggsWR1 week · 0 starts · 0.0 started, flipped wk8 to Caleb for Damien Harris and Diontae Johnson, credit 157.70.0never started
Stefon DiggsWR1 week · 0 starts · 0.0 started, flipped wk8 to Caleb for Damien Harris and Diontae Johnson, credit 157.70.0never startedSide total57.357.3 direct · 271.5 with conversion
JM
Joe MixonRB15 weeks · 14 starts · 250.9 started, flipped 2022 wk5 to Alex for Derrick Henry, Tyreek Hill, Jeff Wilson, Jalen Hurts and Amon-Ra St. Brown, credit 204.4250.914 starts
Joe MixonRB15 weeks · 14 starts · 250.9 started, flipped 2022 wk5 to Alex for Derrick Henry, Tyreek Hill, Jeff Wilson, Jalen Hurts and Amon-Ra St. Brown, credit 204.4250.914 starts
$6 FAAB
Side total299.4299.4 direct · 503.8 with conversion
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
Two grades and the long run
on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2021 · the long run across tenures
On paperF/D/F110.5 to Curtis, 9.21 a weekRyan's sideRondale Moore 122.7, Devontae Booker 80.2, A.J. Green 78.5281.4Curtis's sideJosh Jacobs 192.6, Stefon Diggs 175.8, Miles Sanders 121.6490.0Austin's sideDeAndre Hopkins 177.0, Joe Mixon 142.1319.1Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksF/C/F-64.1 to Curtis, 5.34 a weekRyan's sideA.J. Green 79.2, Devontae Booker 74.3, Rondale Moore 38.3191.8Curtis's sideStefon Diggs 191.0, Josh Jacobs 159.2, Miles Sanders 66.7416.9Austin's sideJoe Mixon 220.2, DeAndre Hopkins 69.0289.2What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runF/D/A+413.8 to Austindirectwhat Austin started himself299.4with conversionthe flips credited back503.8againstwhat the other side started90.0Ryan's side-324.0Curtis's side-60.6that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way+152.4Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
Ryan's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
A.J. Green9.441.000.801.051.000.907.141178.5Devontae Booker6.021.121.201.001.000.907.291180.2Rondale Moore11.801.001.001.051.000.9011.1511122.7Side total281.4
Curtis's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Stefon Diggs16.911.001.001.051.000.9015.9811175.8Josh Jacobs15.141.071.201.001.000.9017.5111192.6Miles Sanders12.281.001.001.001.000.9011.0511121.6Side total490.0
Austin's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
DeAndre Hopkins17.031.001.001.051.000.9016.0911177.0Joe Mixon14.650.941.001.000.851.1012.9211142.1Side total319.1
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.
The season after
2021, before and after week 6 · the trade week marked · regular season
Ryanfinished 6thBefore2-3126.8 a gameAfter7-2117.8 a game1234567891011121314QF5th17Curtisfinished 10thBefore1-499.1 a gameAfter2-7110.2 a game1234567891011121314ConsConsConsAustinfinished 9thBefore2-3122.8 a gameAfter3-6126.3 a game1234567891011121314ConsConsConswinlosstrade weekbye or out
The chain
the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
This deal · 2021 wk6Ryan, Curtis and Austin, 3 for 3 for 2299.4 direct to Austin
2021 wk8 · Curtis to CalebSDStefon Diggs out, Damien Harris and Diontae Johnson in214.2 for Curtis · credit 157.72021 wk8 · Curtis to CalebJJJosh Jacobs out, Damien Harris and Diontae Johnson in214.2 for Curtis · credit 56.52022 wk5 · Austin to AlexJMJoe Mixon out, Derrick Henry, Tyreek Hill, Jeff Wilson, Jalen Hurts and Amon-Ra St. Brown in670.8 for Austin · credit 204.4
Stefon Diggs out, Damien Harris and Diontae Johnson in214.2 for Curtis · credit 157.72021 wk8 · Curtis to CalebJJJosh Jacobs out, Damien Harris and Diontae Johnson in214.2 for Curtis · credit 56.52022 wk5 · Austin to AlexJMJoe Mixon out, Derrick Henry, Tyreek Hill, Jeff Wilson, Jalen Hurts and Amon-Ra St. Brown in670.8 for Austin · credit 204.4
The context
Trade in league history45 of 123
Ryan's trades15 his worst
Curtis's trades27 his side D, -60.6
Austin's trades33 his side A, +413.8
Blockbusternot in the list
Fleecenot in the list
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.