2020·Week 4
1 for 2 · B on paper, C in the books · a ring deal
On paper Stephan, in the books even, in the long run Mikayel, and Hill started 12 weeks for him. He won the title that year with Hill in the lineup.
The deal
weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
Side total270.3270.3 direct
AC
Amari CooperWR5 weeks · 5 starts · 75.4 started, flipped wk9 to Caleb for Alvin Kamara, Christian Kirk, George Kittle and Kenny Golladay, credit 54.575.45 starts
Amari CooperWR5 weeks · 5 starts · 75.4 started, flipped wk9 to Caleb for Alvin Kamara, Christian Kirk, George Kittle and Kenny Golladay, credit 54.575.45 startsKH
Kareem HuntRB6 weeks · 5 starts · 73.6 started, flipped wk10 to Ryan for Stefon Diggs, credit 0.073.65 starts
Kareem HuntRB6 weeks · 5 starts · 73.6 started, flipped wk10 to Ryan for Stefon Diggs, credit 0.073.65 startsSide total149.0149.0 direct · 203.5 with conversion
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
Two grades and the long run
on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2020 · the long run across tenures
On paperD/B107.1 to Stephan, 8.24 a weekMikayel's sideTyreek Hill 217.5217.5Stephan's sideAmari Cooper 186.3, Kareem Hunt 138.3324.6Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksC/C+53.3 to Stephan, 4.10 a weekMikayel's sideTyreek Hill 270.3270.3Stephan's sideAmari Cooper 175.0, Kareem Hunt 148.6323.6What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runB/D+121.3 to Mikayeldirectwhat Mikayel started himself270.3with conversionthe flips credited back270.3againstwhat the other side started149.0Stephan's side-66.8that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way+121.3Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
Mikayel's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Tyreek Hill17.261.001.001.051.001.0018.1212217.5Side total217.5
Stephan's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Kareem Hunt15.071.001.001.000.850.9011.5312138.3Amari Cooper15.541.061.001.051.000.9015.5212186.3Side total324.6
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.
The season after
2020, before and after week 4 · the trade week marked · regular season
Mikayelfinished 1st, championBefore2-1154.5 a gameAfter6-4142.1 a game12345678910111213QFSFFStephanfinished 9thBefore0-3120.6 a gameAfter5-5122.1 a game1234567891011121314ConsConswinlosstrade weekbye or out
The chain
the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
This deal · 2020 wk4Mikayel and Stephan, 1 for 2270.3 direct to Mikayel
2020 wk10 · Stephan to RyanKHKareem Hunt out, Stefon Diggs in0.0 for Stephan · credit 0.02020 wk9 · Stephan to CalebACAmari Cooper out, Alvin Kamara, Christian Kirk, George Kittle and Kenny Golladay in182.6 for Stephan · credit 54.5
Kareem Hunt out, Stefon Diggs in0.0 for Stephan · credit 0.02020 wk9 · Stephan to CalebACAmari Cooper out, Alvin Kamara, Christian Kirk, George Kittle and Kenny Golladay in182.6 for Stephan · credit 54.5nothing went further
The context
Trade in league history18 of 123
Mikayel's trades15 his side B, +121.3
Stephan's trades27 his side D, -66.8
Blockbusternot in the list
Fleecenot in the list
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.