2020·Week 10
2 for 1 · B on paper, C in the books
On paper Ryan, in the books even, in the long run Ryan, because Aiyuk became Smith and Hubbard.
The deal
weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
BA
Brandon AiyukWR4 weeks · 0 starts · 0.0 started, flipped 2021 wk5 to Alex for DeVonta Smith and Chuba Hubbard, credit 94.90.0never started
Brandon AiyukWR4 weeks · 0 starts · 0.0 started, flipped 2021 wk5 to Alex for DeVonta Smith and Chuba Hubbard, credit 94.90.0never startedSide total38.638.6 direct · 133.5 with conversion
Side total0.00.0 direct
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
Two grades and the long run
on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2020 · the long run across tenures
On paperB/D60.2 to Ryan, 8.60 a weekRyan's sideKareem Hunt 105.4, Brandon Aiyuk 54.1159.5Stephan's sideStefon Diggs 99.399.3Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksC/C+31.4 to Ryan, 4.49 a weekRyan's sideKareem Hunt 75.0, Brandon Aiyuk 66.6141.6Stephan's sideStefon Diggs 110.2110.2What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runB/C+133.5 to Ryandirectwhat Ryan started himself38.6with conversionthe flips credited back133.5againstwhat the other side started0.0Stephan's side-38.6that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way0.0Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
Ryan's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Kareem Hunt14.941.121.001.001.000.9015.067105.4Brandon Aiyuk13.711.100.801.001.000.9010.82554.1Side total159.5
Stephan's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Stefon Diggs16.541.061.001.051.000.9016.55699.3Side total99.3
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.
The season after
2020, before and after week 10 · the trade week marked · regular season
Ryanfinished 11thBefore1-8104.6 a gameAfter0-4103.8 a game12345678910111213ConsCons16Stephanfinished 9thBefore3-6125.6 a gameAfter2-2113.2 a game1234567891011121314ConsConswinlosstrade weekbye or out
The chain
the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
This deal · 2020 wk10Ryan and Stephan, 2 for 138.6 direct to Ryan
nothing went further
The context
Trade in league history26 of 123
Ryan's trades15 his side B, +133.5
Stephan's trades27 his side C, -38.6
Blockbusternot in the list
Fleecenot in the list
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.