2021·Week 5
2 for 2 · B on paper, B in the books
On paper Alex, in the books Alex, in the long run Alex, because Aiyuk became Olave.
The deal
weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
Side total136.4136.4 direct
BA
Brandon AiyukWR8 weeks · 8 starts · 118.1 started, flipped 2024 wk2 to Stephan for Chris Olave, credit 65.3118.18 starts
Brandon AiyukWR8 weeks · 8 starts · 118.1 started, flipped 2024 wk2 to Stephan for Chris Olave, credit 65.3118.18 starts
Side total169.8169.8 direct · 235.2 with conversion
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
Two grades and the long run
on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2021 · the long run across tenures
On paperD/B87.4 to Alex, 6.72 a weekRyan's sideDeVonta Smith 128.8, Chuba Hubbard 63.2192.0Alex's sideLeonard Fournette 147.7, Brandon Aiyuk 131.8279.4Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksD/B+107.0 to Alex, 8.23 a weekRyan's sideDeVonta Smith 130.8, Chuba Hubbard 91.3222.1Alex's sideLeonard Fournette 209.8, Brandon Aiyuk 119.3329.1What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runC/B+98.8 to Alexdirectwhat Alex started himself169.8with conversionthe flips credited back235.2againstwhat the other side started136.4Ryan's side-33.4that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way-84.7Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
Ryan's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
DeVonta Smith11.931.001.001.001.000.9010.7412128.8Chuba Hubbard5.851.001.001.001.000.905.271263.2Side total192.0
Alex's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Leonard Fournette12.001.081.001.051.000.9012.3012147.7Brandon Aiyuk11.090.871.201.051.000.9010.9812131.8Side total279.4
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.
The season after
2021, before and after week 5 · the trade week marked · regular season
Ryanfinished 6thBefore2-2132.6 a gameAfter7-3116.4 a game1234567891011121314QF5thAlexfinished 5thBefore2-2148.2 a gameAfter6-4115.7 a game1234567891011121314QF5thwinlosstrade weekbye or out
The chain
the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
This deal · 2021 wk5Ryan and Alex, 2 for 2169.8 direct to Alex
The context
Trade in league history44 of 123
Ryan's trades15 his side C, -33.4
Alex's trades45 his side B, +98.8
Blockbusternot in the list
Fleecenot in the list
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.