2022·Week 12
3 for 2 · B on paper, B in the books
On paper Ryan, in the books Ryan, in the long run Ryan, and Hockenson started 19 weeks for him.
The deal
weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
Side total338.8338.8 direct
Side total102.0102.0 direct
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
Two grades and the long run
on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2022 · the long run across tenures
On paperB/D51.3 to Ryan, 8.55 a weekRyan's sideAaron Jones 77.3, T.J. Hockenson 71.2, Joshua Palmer 60.7209.3Stephan's sideMark Andrews 81.4, James Conner 76.6158.0Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksB/D+47.8 to Ryan, 7.97 a weekRyan's sideT.J. Hockenson 91.4, Aaron Jones 68.2, Joshua Palmer 45.4205.0Stephan's sideJames Conner 101.5, Mark Andrews 55.7157.2What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runA/F+236.8 to Ryandirectwhat Ryan started himself338.8with conversionthe flips credited back338.8againstwhat the other side started102.0Stephan's side-236.8that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way+16.8Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
Ryan's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Aaron Jones15.471.001.001.001.001.0015.47577.3T.J. Hockenson11.871.001.001.001.001.0011.87671.2Joshua Palmer10.011.121.001.001.000.9010.12660.7Side total209.3
Stephan's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
James Conner13.771.111.001.001.001.0015.31576.6Mark Andrews15.330.921.201.050.850.9013.57681.4Side total158.0
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.
The season after
2022, before and after week 12 · the trade week marked · regular season
Ryanfinished 8thBefore5-6112.3 a gameAfter2-1117.7 a game123456789101112131415ConsConsStephanfinished 3rdBefore7-4132.4 a gameAfter2-1111.6 a game123456789101112131415SF3rdwinlosstrade weekbye or out
The chain
the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
Nothing was flipped out of this deal.
The context
Trade in league history84 of 123
Ryan's trades15 his best
Stephan's trades27 his worst
Blockbusternot in the list
Fleecenot in the list
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.