2022·Week 1
2 for 1 for 1 · D on paper, B in the books · a ring deal
In the long run Austin -10.3, then Sobi -24.3, then David Cheung -33.5. He won the title that year with Hill in the lineup.
The deal
weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
DW
Darren WallerTE2 weeks · 2 starts · 28.9 started, flipped wk3 to Greg for Mike Gesicki, Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase, credit 17.428.92 starts
Darren WallerTE2 weeks · 2 starts · 28.9 started, flipped wk3 to Greg for Mike Gesicki, Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase, credit 17.428.92 starts
Side total28.928.9 direct · 46.3 with conversion
Side total30.630.6 direct
Side total26.026.0 direct
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
Two grades and the long run
on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2022 · the long run across tenures
On paperD/D/F138.1 to Sobi, 8.12 a weekAustin's sideDarren Waller 208.0, Kenneth Walker 0.0208.0Sobi's sideHunter Renfrow 223.4223.4David Cheung's sideZach Ertz 153.4153.4Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksB/F/D+116.6 to Austin, 6.86 a weekAustin's sideKenneth Walker 189.1, Darren Waller 79.3268.4Sobi's sideHunter Renfrow 36.236.2David Cheung's sideZach Ertz 115.6115.6What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runC/C/C-10.3 to Austindirectwhat Austin started himself28.9with conversionthe flips credited back46.3againstwhat the other side started56.6Sobi's side-24.3David Cheung's side-33.5that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way+73.8Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
Austin's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Darren Waller13.001.001.001.001.001.0013.0016208.0Kenneth Walker0.001.001.001.000.851.000.00160.0Side total208.0
Sobi's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Hunter Renfrow13.961.001.001.001.001.0013.9616223.4Side total223.4
David Cheung's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Zach Ertz11.281.001.001.000.851.009.5916153.4Side total153.4
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.
The season after
2022, before and after week 1 · the trade week marked · regular season
Austinfinished 1st, championBefore—no games before itAfter11-3125.5 a game123456789101112131415SFFSobifinished 2ndBefore—no games before itAfter9-5116.1 a game1234567891011121314QFSFFDavid Cheungfinished 9thBefore—no games before itAfter4-10114.5 a game1234567891011121314ConsConsConswinlosstrade weekbye or out
The chain
the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
This deal · 2022 wk1Austin, Sobi and David Cheung, 2 for 1 for 128.9 direct to Austin
The context
Trade in league history61 of 123
Austin's trades33 his side C, -10.3
Sobi's trades5 his side C, -24.3
David Cheung's trades10 his side C, -33.5
Blockbusternot in the list
Fleecenot in the list
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.