2019·Week 7
3 for 2 · B on paper, B in the books · a ring deal
On paper Stephan, in the books Stephan, in the long run Stephan, because Carson became Kamara and Kirk. David M won the title that year with McCaffrey in the lineup.
The deal
weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
CC
Chris CarsonRB15 weeks · 13 starts · 206.2 started, flipped 2020 wk9 to Caleb for Alvin Kamara, Christian Kirk, George Kittle and Kenny Golladay, credit 39.6206.213 starts
Chris CarsonRB15 weeks · 13 starts · 206.2 started, flipped 2020 wk9 to Caleb for Alvin Kamara, Christian Kirk, George Kittle and Kenny Golladay, credit 39.6206.213 starts
Side total437.6437.6 direct · 477.3 with conversion
Side total251.1251.1 direct
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
Two grades and the long run
on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2019 · the long run across tenures
On paperB/D84.2 to Stephan, 8.42 a weekStephan's sideMark Ingram 169.6, Chris Carson 162.6, Keenan Allen 128.7460.9David M's sideChristian McCaffrey 258.7, Tyler Boyd 118.0376.7Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksB/D+74.4 to Stephan, 7.44 a weekStephan's sideMark Ingram 127.3, Chris Carson 119.1, Keenan Allen 116.4362.8David M's sideChristian McCaffrey 242.6, Tyler Boyd 45.8288.4What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runA/F+226.2 to Stephandirectwhat Stephan started himself437.6with conversionthe flips credited back477.3againstwhat the other side started251.1David M's side-186.5that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way+81.5Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
Stephan's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Keenan Allen17.480.911.001.001.000.9014.309128.7Chris Carson15.641.001.001.051.001.1018.069162.6Mark Ingram14.981.091.001.051.001.1018.849169.6Side total460.9
David M's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Tyler Boyd14.441.061.000.951.000.9013.119118.0Christian McCaffrey26.131.001.001.001.001.1028.749258.7Side total376.7
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.
The season after
2019, before and after week 7 · the trade week marked · regular season
Stephanfinished 2ndBefore3-3142.4 a gameAfter6-1118.7 a game1234567891011121314SFFDavid Mfinished 1st, championBefore5-1139.2 a gameAfter5-2127.8 a game1234567891011121314SFFwinlosstrade weekbye or out
The chain
the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
This deal · 2019 wk7Stephan and David M, 3 for 2437.6 direct to Stephan
nothing went further
The context
Trade in league history13 of 123
Stephan's trades27 his side A, +226.2
David M's trades12 his worst
Blockbusternot in the list
Fleecenot in the list
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.