On paper Mikayel, in the books even, in the long run David M, because Thomas became Hopkins and Edwards-Helaire. He won the title that year with Thomas in the lineup.
The deal
weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
Side total188.9188.9 direct
MT
Michael ThomasWR19 weeks · 13 starts · 293.7 started, flipped 2020 wk10 to Austin for Clyde Edwards-Helaire and DeAndre Hopkins, credit 137.2293.713 starts
Michael ThomasWR19 weeks · 13 starts · 293.7 started, flipped 2020 wk10 to Austin for Clyde Edwards-Helaire and DeAndre Hopkins, credit 137.2293.713 startsSide total293.7293.7 direct · 430.9 with conversion
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
Two grades and the long run
on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2019 · the long run across tenures
On paperB/D106.6 to Mikayel, 8.20 a weekMikayel's sideNick Chubb 190.9, Marvin Jones 141.3332.1David M's sideMichael Thomas 225.5225.5Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksC/C+49.5 to Mikayel, 3.81 a weekMikayel's sideNick Chubb 188.9, Marvin Jones 139.5328.4David M's sideMichael Thomas 278.9278.9What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runD/A+242.0 to David Mdirectwhat David M started himself293.7with conversionthe flips credited back430.9againstwhat the other side started188.9Mikayel's side-104.8that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way+90.0Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
Mikayel's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Nick Chubb13.481.151.200.951.000.9015.9112190.9Marvin Jones13.081.001.001.001.000.9011.7712141.3Side total332.1
David M's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Michael Thomas18.791.001.001.001.001.0018.7912225.5Side total225.5
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.
The season after
2019, before and after week 4 · the trade week marked · regular season
Mikayelfinished 8thBefore1-2124.8 a gameAfter5-5115.6 a game1234567891011121314ConsCons
David Mfinished 1st, championBefore2-1140.5 a gameAfter8-2130.8 a game1234567891011121314SFFwinlosstrade weekbye or out
The chain
the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
This deal · 2019 wk4Mikayel and David M, 2 for 1293.7 direct to David M
nothing went further
The context
Trade in league history9 of 123
Mikayel's trades15 his side D, -104.8
David M's trades12 his best
Blockbusternot in the list
Fleecenot in the list
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.