2017·Week 8
3 for 3 · C on paper, C in the books
On paper even, in the books even, in the long run Curtis, and Brady started 5 weeks for him.
The deal
weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
Side total171.7171.7 direct
Side total85.985.9 direct
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
Two grades and the long run
on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2017 · the long run across tenures
On paperC/C28.6 to Curtis, 3.18 a weekCurtis's sideTom Brady 208.7, Emmanuel Sanders 51.1, Isaiah Crowell 46.9306.7Austin N's sideLeonard Fournette 139.1, Aaron Rodgers 86.5, Randall Cobb 52.5278.1Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksC/C+14.0 to Curtis, 1.55 a weekCurtis's sideTom Brady 94.8, Isaiah Crowell 51.5, Emmanuel Sanders 27.5173.8Austin N's sideLeonard Fournette 73.9, Randall Cobb 64.0, Aaron Rodgers 21.9159.8What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runB/D+85.8 to Curtisdirectwhat Curtis started himself171.7with conversionthe flips credited back171.7againstwhat the other side started85.9Austin N's side-85.8that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way+63.9Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
Curtis's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Emmanuel Sanders10.220.910.801.000.850.905.68951.1Isaiah Crowell6.861.001.000.951.000.905.87846.9Tom Brady20.701.001.201.051.001.0026.088208.7Side total306.7
Austin N's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Aaron Rodgers17.950.860.801.001.001.0012.36786.5Randall Cobb7.850.931.001.001.000.906.56852.5Leonard Fournette20.451.001.001.000.851.0017.388139.1Side total278.1
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.
The season after
2017, before and after week 8 · the trade week marked · regular season
Curtisfinished 12thBefore2-589.4 a gameAfter3-385.2 a game12345678910111213141516Austin Nfinished 4thBefore4-391.5 a gameAfter5-1115.0 a game12345678910111213QFSF3rdwinlosstrade weekbye or out
The chain
the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
Nothing was flipped out of this deal.
The context
Trade in league history4 of 123
Curtis's trades27 his side B, +85.8
Austin N's trades3 his side D, -85.8
Blockbusternot in the list
Fleecenot in the list
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.