2017·Week 1
1 for 1 · C on paper, C in the books
On paper even, in the books even, in the long run Bryan C, because Ingram became Martin.
The deal
weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
RC
Randall CobbWR7 weeks · 6 starts · 47.1 started, flipped wk8 to Austin N for Emmanuel Sanders, Isaiah Crowell and Tom Brady, credit 24.047.16 starts
Randall CobbWR7 weeks · 6 starts · 47.1 started, flipped wk8 to Austin N for Emmanuel Sanders, Isaiah Crowell and Tom Brady, credit 24.047.16 startsSide total47.147.1 direct · 71.1 with conversion
MI
Mark IngramRB8 weeks · 7 starts · 97.2 started, flipped wk10 to Austin for Cameron Brate, T.Y. Hilton and Doug Martin, credit 3.097.27 starts
Mark IngramRB8 weeks · 7 starts · 97.2 started, flipped wk10 to Austin for Cameron Brate, T.Y. Hilton and Doug Martin, credit 3.097.27 startsSide total97.297.2 direct · 100.2 with conversion
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
Two grades and the long run
on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2017 · the long run across tenures
On paperC/CevenCurtis's sideRandall Cobb 0.00.0Bryan C's sideMark Ingram 0.00.0Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksC/C+75.6 to Bryan C, 4.72 a weekCurtis's sideRandall Cobb 111.1111.1Bryan C's sideMark Ingram 186.7186.7What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runC/B+53.1 to Bryan Cdirectwhat Bryan C started himself97.2with conversionthe flips credited back100.2againstwhat the other side started47.1Curtis's side-26.1that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way+50.1Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
Curtis's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Randall Cobb0.001.001.001.001.001.000.00150.0Side total0.0
Bryan C's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Mark Ingram0.001.001.001.001.001.000.00150.0Side total0.0
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.
The season after
2017, before and after week 1 · the trade week marked · regular season
Curtisfinished 12thBefore—no games before itAfter5-887.5 a game12345678910111213Bryan Cfinished 11thBefore—no games before itAfter5-890.5 a game12345678910111213winlosstrade weekbye or out
The chain
the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
This deal · 2017 wk1Curtis and Bryan C, 1 for 197.2 direct to Bryan C
2017 wk8 · Curtis to Austin NRCRandall Cobb out, Emmanuel Sanders, Isaiah Crowell and Tom Brady in171.7 for Curtis · credit 24.02017 wk10 · Bryan C to AustinMIMark Ingram out, Cameron Brate, T.Y. Hilton and Doug Martin in5.1 for Bryan C · credit 3.0
Randall Cobb out, Emmanuel Sanders, Isaiah Crowell and Tom Brady in171.7 for Curtis · credit 24.02017 wk10 · Bryan C to AustinMIMark Ingram out, Cameron Brate, T.Y. Hilton and Doug Martin in5.1 for Bryan C · credit 3.0nothing went further
The context
Trade in league history1 of 123
Curtis's trades27 his side C, -26.1
Bryan C's trades2 his best
Blockbusternot in the list
Fleecenot in the list
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.