2021·Week 3
3 for 3 · B on paper, B in the books
On paper Greg, in the books Alex, in the long run Greg, and Folk started 27 weeks for him.
The deal
weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
Side total381.4381.4 direct
DM
David MontgomeryRB3 weeks · 1 start · 22.6 started, flipped wk7 to Kappy for Tony Pollard and Antonio Gibson, credit 72.422.61 start
David MontgomeryRB3 weeks · 1 start · 22.6 started, flipped wk7 to Kappy for Tony Pollard and Antonio Gibson, credit 72.422.61 startSide total279.4279.4 direct · 351.8 with conversion
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
Two grades and the long run
on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2021 · the long run across tenures
On paperB/D170.8 to Greg, 11.39 a weekGreg's sideDerrick Henry 424.1, Mecole Hardman 142.3, Nick Folk 132.4698.9Alex's sideDK Metcalf 204.7, David Montgomery 187.8, Tyler Bass 135.5528.0Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksD/B+156.2 to Alex, 10.41 a weekGreg's sideNick Folk 139.5, Derrick Henry 134.9, Mecole Hardman 53.8328.2Alex's sideDK Metcalf 206.2, David Montgomery 156.4, Tyler Bass 121.8484.4What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runB/C+102.0 to Gregdirectwhat Greg started himself381.4with conversionthe flips credited back381.4againstwhat the other side started279.4Alex's side-29.6that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way-32.7Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
Greg's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Nick Folk9.461.001.001.001.001.009.4614132.4Derrick Henry21.511.071.201.001.001.1030.3014424.1Mecole Hardman7.861.151.191.051.000.9010.1614142.3Side total698.9
Alex's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
DK Metcalf15.471.001.001.051.000.9014.6214204.7David Montgomery16.051.000.800.951.001.1013.4214187.8Tyler Bass9.681.001.001.001.001.009.6814135.5Side total528.0
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.
The season after
2021, before and after week 3 · the trade week marked · regular season
Gregfinished 2ndBefore0-2116.4 a gameAfter8-4133.2 a game1234567891011121314QFSFFAlexfinished 5thBefore1-1153.3 a gameAfter7-5120.2 a game1234567891011121314QF5th17winlosstrade weekbye or out
The chain
the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
This deal · 2021 wk3Greg and Alex, 3 for 3381.4 direct to Greg
nothing went further
The context
Trade in league history36 of 123
Greg's trades9 his side B, +102.0
Alex's trades45 his side C, -29.6
Blockbusternot in the list
Fleecenot in the list
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.