2025·Week 4
1 for 1 · C on paper, B in the books
On paper even, in the books Sobi, in the long run Sobi, and Mayfield started 10 weeks for him.
The deal
weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
Side total168.4168.4 direct
MH
Marvin HarrisonWR0 weeks · 0 starts · 0.0 started, flipped wk5 to Caleb for Aaron Jones and Tony Pollard, credit 57.60.0never started
Marvin HarrisonWR0 weeks · 0 starts · 0.0 started, flipped wk5 to Caleb for Aaron Jones and Tony Pollard, credit 57.60.0never startedSide total0.00.0 direct · 57.6 with conversion
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
Two grades and the long run
on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2025 · the long run across tenures
On paperC/C68.7 to Sobi, 4.91 a weekSobi's sideBaker Mayfield 213.5213.5Alex's sideMarvin Harrison 144.8144.8Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksB/D+131.9 to Sobi, 9.42 a weekSobi's sideBaker Mayfield 229.5229.5Alex's sideMarvin Harrison 97.697.6What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runA/D+168.4 to Sobidirectwhat Sobi started himself168.4with conversionthe flips credited back168.4againstwhat the other side started0.0Alex's side-110.8that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way+168.4Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
Sobi's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Baker Mayfield23.001.000.801.050.851.0016.4213213.5Side total213.5
Alex's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Marvin Harrison11.141.001.001.001.001.0011.1413144.8Side total144.8
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.
The season after
2025, before and after week 4 · the trade week marked · regular season
Sobifinished 12thBefore1-2115.3 a gameAfter3-8101.0 a game1234567891011121314ConsCons17Alexfinished 3rdBefore3-0139.0 a gameAfter7-4146.1 a game123456789101112131415SF3rdwinlosstrade weekbye or out
The chain
the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
This deal · 2025 wk4Sobi and Alex, 1 for 1168.4 direct to Sobi
nothing went further
The context
Trade in league history111 of 123
Sobi's trades5 his best
Alex's trades45 his side D, -110.8
Blockbusternot in the list
Fleecenot in the list
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.