2023·Week 10
2 for 2 · C on paper, C in the books · a ring deal
On paper even, in the books even, in the long run Mikayel, because St. Brown became Chase. He won the title that year with St. Brown in the lineup.
The deal
weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
AS
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR19 weeks · 18 starts · 363.0 started, flipped 2024 wk12 to Kappy for Ja'Marr Chase, credit 75.9363.018 starts
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR19 weeks · 18 starts · 363.0 started, flipped 2024 wk12 to Kappy for Ja'Marr Chase, credit 75.9363.018 starts
Side total363.0363.0 direct · 438.9 with conversion
Side total136.2136.2 direct
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
Two grades and the long run
on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2023 · the long run across tenures
On paperC/C18.3 to Alex, 2.29 a weekMikayel's sideAmon-Ra St. Brown 179.2, Dallas Goedert 55.9235.1Alex's sideGeorge Kittle 128.0, Tony Pollard 125.4253.4Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksC/C+2.2 to Mikayel, 0.28 a weekMikayel's sideAmon-Ra St. Brown 166.6, Dallas Goedert 43.9210.5Alex's sideGeorge Kittle 110.7, Tony Pollard 97.6208.3What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runA/F+302.7 to Mikayeldirectwhat Mikayel started himself363.0with conversionthe flips credited back438.9againstwhat the other side started136.2Alex's side-226.8that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way+30.4Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
Mikayel's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Dallas Goedert10.561.000.801.051.000.907.98755.9Amon-Ra St. Brown18.671.001.201.001.001.0022.408179.2Side total235.1
Alex's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
George Kittle12.541.101.001.051.001.1016.008128.0Tony Pollard13.571.001.001.051.001.1015.678125.4Side total253.4
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.
The season after
2023, before and after week 10 · the trade week marked · regular season
Mikayelfinished 1st, championBefore6-3126.0 a gameAfter4-1161.7 a game1234567891011121314QFSFFAlexfinished 5thBefore3-6114.0 a gameAfter4-1135.7 a game1234567891011121314QF5th17winlosstrade weekbye or out
The chain
the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
This deal · 2023 wk10Mikayel and Alex, 2 for 2363.0 direct to Mikayel
2024 wk12 · Mikayel to KappyASAmon-Ra St. Brown out, Ja'Marr Chase in127.7 for Mikayel · credit 75.9
Amon-Ra St. Brown out, Ja'Marr Chase in127.7 for Mikayel · credit 75.9nothing went further
The context
Trade in league history94 of 123
Mikayel's trades15 his best
Alex's trades45 his side F, -226.8
Blockbusternot in the list
Fleecenot in the list
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.