2023·Week 2
3 for 3 · C on paper, C in the books
On paper even, in the books even, in the long run David Cheung, and Hill started 15 weeks for him.
The deal
weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
Side total406.8406.8 direct
Side total323.4323.4 direct
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
Two grades and the long run
on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2023 · the long run across tenures
On paperC/C9.5 to Alex, 0.60 a weekDavid Cheung's sideTyreek Hill 371.1, Zay Jones 154.7, Alexander Mattison 103.7629.5Alex's sideDerrick Henry 328.4, Calvin Ridley 221.0, Romeo Doubs 89.5639.0Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksC/C+71.0 to Alex, 4.43 a weekDavid Cheung's sideTyreek Hill 317.7, Alexander Mattison 114.9, Zay Jones 18.8451.4Alex's sideDerrick Henry 218.5, Calvin Ridley 185.2, Romeo Doubs 118.7522.4What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runB/D+83.4 to David Cheungdirectwhat David Cheung started himself406.8with conversionthe flips credited back406.8againstwhat the other side started323.4Alex's side-83.4that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way+83.4Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
David Cheung's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Tyreek Hill23.561.001.001.051.001.0024.7415371.1Zay Jones11.461.001.001.001.000.9010.3115154.7Alexander Mattison6.681.151.001.001.000.906.9115103.7Side total629.5
Alex's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Derrick Henry17.461.001.200.951.001.1021.8915328.4Calvin Ridley18.421.000.801.001.001.0014.7415221.0Romeo Doubs9.291.000.801.050.850.905.971589.5Side total639.0
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.
The season after
2023, before and after week 2 · the trade week marked · regular season
David Cheungfinished 2ndBefore1-0148.0 a gameAfter7-6113.8 a game1234567891011121314QFSFFAlexfinished 5thBefore0-1117.4 a gameAfter7-6122.1 a game1234567891011121314QF5th17winlosstrade weekbye or out
The chain
the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
Nothing was flipped out of this deal.
The context
Trade in league history88 of 123
David Cheung's trades10 his side B, +83.4
Alex's trades45 his side D, -83.4
Blockbuster4th of 8 730.2 combined
Fleecenot in the list
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.