2020·Week 10
1 for 1 · C on paper, C in the books
On paper even, in the books even, in the long run even.
The deal
weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
Side total66.666.6 direct
Side total89.489.4 direct
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
Two grades and the long run
on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2020 · the long run across tenures
On paperC/C12.5 to Ryan, 1.79 a weekGreg's sideBrandon Aiyuk 54.154.1Ryan's sideMike Davis 66.666.6Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksC/C+3.0 to Ryan, 0.43 a weekGreg's sideBrandon Aiyuk 66.666.6Ryan's sideMike Davis 69.669.6What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runC/C+22.8 to Ryandirectwhat Ryan started himself89.4with conversionthe flips credited back89.4againstwhat the other side started66.6Greg's side-22.8that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way-23.3Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
Greg's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Brandon Aiyuk13.711.100.801.001.000.9010.82554.1Side total54.1
Ryan's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Mike Davis10.281.001.201.001.000.9011.10666.6Side total66.6
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.
The season after
2020, before and after week 10 · the trade week marked · regular season
Gregfinished 2ndBefore8-1124.8 a gameAfter2-2129.7 a game1234567891011121314SFFRyanfinished 11thBefore1-8104.6 a gameAfter0-4103.8 a game12345678910111213ConsCons16winlosstrade weekbye or out
The chain
the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
Nothing was flipped out of this deal.
The context
Trade in league history30 of 123
Greg's trades9 his side C, -22.8
Ryan's trades15 his side C, +22.8
Blockbusternot in the list
Fleecenot in the list
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.