2022·Week 4
1 for 1 · C on paper, C in the books
On paper even, in the books even, in the long run even.
The deal
weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
Side total21.121.1 direct
$10 FAAB
Side total19.019.0 direct
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
Two grades and the long run
on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2022 · the long run across tenures
On paperC/C41.3 to Stephan, 2.95 a weekKappy's sideMelvin Gordon 133.4133.4Stephan's sideKareem Hunt 174.7174.7Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksC/C+21.5 to Stephan, 1.54 a weekKappy's sideMelvin Gordon 56.156.1Stephan's sideKareem Hunt 77.677.6What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runC/C+2.1 to Kappydirectwhat Kappy started himself21.1with conversionthe flips credited back21.1againstwhat the other side started19.0Stephan's side-2.1that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way+2.1Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
Kappy's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Melvin Gordon12.001.001.000.951.000.9010.2613133.4Side total133.4
Stephan's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Kareem Hunt14.221.001.001.051.000.9013.4413174.7Side total174.7
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.
The season after
2022, before and after week 4 · the trade week marked · regular season
Kappyfinished 12thBefore1-2114.4 a gameAfter4-7106.6 a game1234567891011121314ConsCons17Stephanfinished 3rdBefore1-2118.9 a gameAfter8-3130.4 a game123456789101112131415SF3rdwinlosstrade weekbye or out
The chain
the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
Nothing was flipped out of this deal.
The context
Trade in league history72 of 123
Kappy's trades9 his side C, +2.1
Stephan's trades27 his side C, -2.1
Blockbusternot in the list
Fleecenot in the list
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.