2021·Week 11
1 for 1 · C on paper, C in the books
On paper even, in the books even, in the long run even.
The deal
weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
Side total0.00.0 direct
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
Two grades and the long run
on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2021 · the long run across tenures
On paperC/C1.4 to Mikayel, 0.20 a weekRyan's sideAlex Collins 49.649.6Mikayel's sideDan Arnold 51.151.1Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksC/C+3.4 to Ryan, 0.49 a weekRyan's sideAlex Collins 5.35.3Mikayel's sideDan Arnold 1.91.9What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runC/C+1.9 to Mikayeldirectwhat Mikayel started himself1.9with conversionthe flips credited back1.9againstwhat the other side started0.0Ryan's side-1.9that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way+1.9Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
Ryan's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Alex Collins7.881.001.001.001.000.907.09749.6Side total49.6
Mikayel's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Dan Arnold7.511.141.000.951.000.907.29751.1Side total51.1
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.
The season after
2021, before and after week 11 · the trade week marked · regular season
Ryanfinished 6thBefore6-4124.4 a gameAfter3-1112.7 a game1234567891011121314QF5th17Mikayelfinished 7thBefore5-5127.3 a gameAfter2-2102.7 a game123456789101112131415ConsConswinlosstrade weekbye or out
The chain
the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
Nothing was flipped out of this deal.
The context
Trade in league history56 of 123
Ryan's trades15 his side C, -1.9
Mikayel's trades15 his side C, +1.9
Blockbusternot in the list
Fleecenot in the list
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.