2021·Week 3
2 for 2 · B on paper, C in the books
On paper Jeff, in the books even, in the long run Jeff, and Chase started 12 weeks for him.
The deal
weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
Side total191.7191.7 direct
Side total35.535.5 direct
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
Two grades and the long run
on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2021 · the long run across tenures
On paperB/D95.3 to Jeff, 6.36 a weekJeff's sideChris Carson 244.0, Ja'Marr Chase 216.1460.1Alex's sideNick Chubb 184.9, Marvin Jones 179.9364.8Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksC/C+5.6 to Alex, 0.37 a weekJeff's sideJa'Marr Chase 265.7, Chris Carson 20.3286.0Alex's sideNick Chubb 169.4, Marvin Jones 122.2291.6What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runA/F+156.2 to Jeffdirectwhat Jeff started himself191.7with conversionthe flips credited back191.7againstwhat the other side started35.5Alex's side-156.2that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way+156.2Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
Jeff's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Chris Carson15.091.001.001.051.001.1017.4314244.0Ja'Marr Chase17.151.001.001.001.000.9015.4314216.1Side total460.1
Alex's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Marvin Jones15.031.001.000.951.000.9012.8514179.9Nick Chubb17.251.000.811.051.000.9013.2014184.9Side total364.8
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.
The season after
2021, before and after week 3 · the trade week marked · regular season
Jefffinished 12thBefore0-2121.1 a gameAfter3-9111.6 a game1234567891011121314ConsConsAlexfinished 5thBefore1-1153.3 a gameAfter7-5120.2 a game1234567891011121314QF5thwinlosstrade weekbye or out
The chain
the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
Nothing was flipped out of this deal.
The context
Trade in league history35 of 123
Jeff's trades6 his side A, +156.2
Alex's trades45 his side F, -156.2
Blockbusternot in the list
Fleecenot in the list
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.