2026·Week 4
1 for 2 · B on paper, C in the books
On paper Alex, in the books even, in the long run even.
The deal
weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
Side total38.638.6 direct
Side total25.925.9 direct
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
Two grades and the long run
on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2026 · the long run across tenures
On paperD/B129.1 to Alex, 9.22 a weekDrake's sideBucky Irving 182.5182.5Alex's sideDenzel Boston 184.2, Josh Downs 127.4311.6Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksC/C+0.2 to Alex, 0.01 a weekDrake's sideBucky Irving 38.638.6Alex's sideDenzel Boston 26.5, Josh Downs 12.338.8What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runC/C+12.7 to Drakedirectwhat Drake started himself38.6with conversionthe flips credited back38.6againstwhat the other side started25.9Alex's side-12.7that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way+12.7Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
Drake's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Bucky Irving13.941.061.000.951.001.0014.0413182.5Side total182.5
Alex's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Josh Downs9.681.131.001.001.000.909.8013127.4Denzel Boston14.171.001.001.001.001.0014.1713184.2Side total311.6
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.
The season after
2026, before and after week 4 · the trade week marked · regular season
DrakeBefore1-2119.1 a gameAfter2-0168.5 a game12345AlexBefore1-2105.7 a gameAfter0-2135.7 a game12345winlosstrade weekbye or out
The chain
the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
Nothing was flipped out of this deal.
The context
Trade in league history123 of 123
Drake's trades1 his best
Alex's trades45 his side C, -12.7
Blockbusternot in the list
Fleecenot in the list
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.