2023·Week 10
3 for 3 · C on paper, C in the books
On paper even, in the books even, in the long run Ryan, and Smith started 26 weeks for him.
The deal
weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
Side total425.7425.7 direct
Side total227.5227.5 direct
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
Two grades and the long run
on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2023 · the long run across tenures
On paperC/C23.3 to David Cheung, 2.91 a weekRyan's sideTua Tagovailoa 146.0, DeVonta Smith 90.9, Logan Thomas 39.1276.0David Cheung's sideAmari Cooper 112.1, Joe Mixon 109.8, Kareem Hunt 77.4299.3Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksC/C+46.4 to David Cheung, 5.80 a weekRyan's sideTua Tagovailoa 111.1, DeVonta Smith 109.3, Logan Thomas 44.6265.0David Cheung's sideJoe Mixon 135.5, Amari Cooper 120.3, Kareem Hunt 55.6311.4What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runA/F+198.2 to Ryandirectwhat Ryan started himself425.7with conversionthe flips credited back425.7againstwhat the other side started227.5David Cheung's side-198.2that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way-75.3Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
Ryan's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Logan Thomas8.280.940.801.001.000.905.59739.1Tua Tagovailoa19.861.001.001.051.001.0020.857146.0DeVonta Smith13.741.001.001.051.000.9012.98790.9Side total276.0
David Cheung's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Amari Cooper14.011.001.001.001.001.0014.018112.1Joe Mixon14.681.001.001.000.851.1013.738109.8Kareem Hunt9.901.091.001.001.000.909.68877.4Side total299.3
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.
The season after
2023, before and after week 10 · the trade week marked · regular season
Ryanfinished 12thBefore2-7121.3 a gameAfter3-2131.9 a game1234567891011121314ConsCons17David Cheungfinished 2ndBefore5-4116.0 a gameAfter3-2116.7 a game1234567891011121314QFSFFwinlosstrade weekbye or out
The chain
the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
Nothing was flipped out of this deal.
The context
Trade in league history92 of 123
Ryan's trades15 his side A, +198.2
David Cheung's trades10 his worst
Blockbusternot in the list
Fleecenot in the list
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.