2023·Week 1
1 for 1 · B on paper, B in the books
On paper Kappy, in the books Kappy, in the long run Kappy, and Moore started 14 weeks for him.
The deal
weeks kept · starts · points started for the new manager · what happened next
Side total142.3142.3 direct
Side total267.4267.4 direct
Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
Two grades and the long run
on paper the day it was made · in the books at the end of 2023 · the long run across tenures
On paperD/B193.9 to Kappy, 11.41 a weekAustin's sideCooper Kupp 0.00.0Kappy's sideDJ Moore 193.9193.9Expected points from each player's own history and his last four weeks: usage, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. No projections from anywhere else.
In the booksD/B+112.7 to Kappy, 6.63 a weekAustin's sideCooper Kupp 168.4168.4Kappy's sideDJ Moore 281.1281.1What the players scored the rest of that season, wherever they were started.
The long runD/B+125.1 to Kappydirectwhat Kappy started himself267.4with conversionthe flips credited back267.4againstwhat the other side started142.3Austin's side-125.1that season's rulepoints received the rest of the way+125.1Tenure is how long the new manager kept the player, across seasons; credit follows a player flipped straight into another deal, two hops at most.
On paper, the receipt
Austin's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
Cooper Kupp20.681.001.001.001.001.0020.6800.0Side total0.0
Kappy's side
PlayerBaseOppEffOffHealthHlthRolePer gameA gameWeeksExpectedExp
DJ Moore12.121.001.001.001.001.0012.1216193.9Side total193.9
Base is the blended points a game his own history says; the five multipliers are opportunity, efficiency, his offense, his injury report and his role. Hover a base for the three parts behind it.
Grades are points per remaining week: +12 A, +6 B, within 6 C, −6 D, below that F, on each side.
The season after
2023, before and after week 1 · the trade week marked · regular season
Austinfinished 10thBefore—no games before itAfter7-7111.6 a game123456789101112131415ConsConsKappyfinished 3rdBefore—no games before itAfter8-6127.7 a game123456789101112131415SF3rdwinlosstrade weekbye or out
The chain
the flips out of this deal · credit follows two hops
Nothing was flipped out of this deal.
The context
Trade in league history86 of 123
Austin's trades33 his side D, -125.1
Kappy's trades9 his side B, +125.1
Blockbusternot in the list
Fleecenot in the list
The order is chronological, season then week: the 33 deals recovered from the Yahoo years come first. Blockbusters rank by combined value, fleeces by margin, both all time.
On paper is the model's reading the day the deal was made, in the books is what the players scored the rest of that season, and the long run is what each side started for as long as it kept the player, with conversion credit. Every figure is on the data notes. Perfect information, forever.